Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Week 9 has a very limited 4pm slate (2 games) so I have combined all of my picks into one article. I will be updating this article over the coming days as more lines trickle in, but wanted to get plays out as soon as lines drop to give people the best chance of locking them in. Be sure to check back in every day for new player props!
Check out all of our Week 9 NFL picks
Trevor Lawrence longest passing completion over 34.5 yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Trevor Lawrence has been getting more comfortable throwing the ball down field. He’s currently 4th in the NFL in pass attempts above 20+ yards as he has 35 so far this year. His aDOT on these throws is 29.1 yards, so this line is in certainly in play. The reason I really love it is because the Raiders have allowed this line to be hit in 6/7 games on the season and they are ranked 27th overall in tackling according to PFF. The combination of Las Vegas missing tackles and Lawrence’s deep play frequency and aDOT make this a very attractive play. Christian Kirk is currently 7th in the league YAC on throws of 20+ or more, and would be a likely candidate for this line. 1.5U from me.
Don’t miss our Week 9 +18766 millionaire parlay!
DeAndre Hopkins over 80.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Two games back from his suspension and Nuke Hopkins hasn’t missed a beat. He’s seen 13 and 14 targets for 10 and 12 receptions. He’s cleared 100 yards receiving in both games and is averaging 11.9 yards per reception. As far as the matchup, Seattle has been exploited by wide receivers on a few occasions this season. Jerry Jeudy went for 102 yards, Josh Reynolds had 81 yards, and Mike Williams for 86 yards are just a few examples, but none possess the same talent level as Hopkins. He has not played a game against Seattle since 2020, but he did go off for 103 yards on 10 receptions at home.
Seattle ranks 22nd overall in coverage according PFF. Rookie CB Tariw Woolen has been exceptional this season and probably the second-best rookie CB behind Sauce Gardner, but DeAndre Hopkins may be his “welcome to the league” moment on Sunday. 1U from me and a candidate for 100+ alternate lines.
Check out our Seahawks vs Cardinals best bet
Aaron Jones over 97.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Aaron Jones is coming off his best performance of the season, carrying the ball 20 times for 143 yards and 4 catches. The Lions’ defense represents an opportunity for Green Bay to get right after a steep decline these last few weeks. Detroit is allowing a horrible 5.24 YPC to opposing RBs (29th), and Jones has hit this line in 3 of the last 4 games against the Lions. In what should be a high-scoring affair, Jones should see another big workload Sunday. I’m expecting 13 carries and 3 to 4 receptions. He is a breakout candidate for 2+ TD’s this week as well considering he had 3 last year vs Detroit. AJ Dillon has seen his workload decrease greatly these last few weeks, but Detroit is the team for him to get right against. For this reason (Mark Cuban voice), I’m only going 0.5U.
Here’s our Packers vs Lions predictions
Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing TDs -123
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Kirk Cousins has hit this in 4 of 7 games, and 2 of the last 3. Yes, there is a revenge angle to this as he’s playing his former franchise, now the Commanders, but that’s not what I love about it. According to PFF, Cousins has a 32-2 TD to INT ratio against man defenses over the last 3 seasons. The Commanders settle into man defense at the 7th-highest rate in the league. Washington has given this line up in 4 of 8 games this year, but QB talent played a big factor. Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Rodgers hit this mark, but Justin Fields, Sam Ehlinger, Trevor Lawrence and Ryan Tannehill did not. The Commanders are giving up only 0.5 rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs this season, good for 9th overall. Cousins will have to make things work through the air if Minnesota wants to put points on the board. 1.5U from me.
Check out our Vikings vs Commanders predictions
Jakobi Myers Over 53.5 Receiving Yards -122
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Devante Parker is out today, and Myers should see an increased workload above already being the clear cut WR1 in New England. This line is 58.5 on other books but grabbed it at 53.5 on Fanduel Sunday morning. Myers has been talking all week about how he’s excited to matchup against his idol in former teammate Stephon Gilmore. If he said that 3 years ago, he’d be a fool. However, at age 32, Gilmore’s play has declined. He’s allowed 13 yards per reception and receptions of 53, 51, 27, and 33 so far this season. Currently, Gilmore is on pace to give up the most YAC of his career and the most yards in total since his rookie year. I’ll stop picking on Gilmore because Myers has been good in his own right. He’s hit this line in 5/6 games and with Mac Jones back under center I feel even more confident in the number of targets he will receive. You can play his receptions at O4.5 as well and he should be an alt line candidate for 80+ (+250). 1.5U from me.
Check out our Colts vs Patriots predictions.
Kenneth Walker Longest Rush Over 17.5 Yards -114
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Over the last 3 weeks the Seahawks are 3-0 and Kenneth Walker has carried the ball no less than 18 times in that span. He’s busted out on the scene as a candidate for OROY and has scored a TD in 4 straight games. Today, he gets the Arizona Cardinals for the second time in 4 weeks. In the first game he for 21 attempts 97 yards and a longest rush of 34 yards. He also had rushes of 17, 21, and 11. The Seahawks Offensive Line has been completely revitalized with rookie additions at both tackle positions. I’m expecting another heavy dose of Walker today and the more carries he gets, the more likely he is to break one. 0.5U on Walker.
Check out our Seahawks vs Cardinals predictions.
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