Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Week 6 of the NFL was the lowest scoring week since 2014. It was ugly to say the least. Let’s assume that is an outlier and we’ll get back on track in Week 7. Injuries are really starting to have an impact and monitoring the injury report will be key to betting player props going forward.
We move away from the London series and focus on the 10 games between 1:00 and 4:00 pm ET. The 2 matchups that stand out the most to me are Lions vs Ravens in the 1:00 pm slot and Chargers vs Chiefs in the late window.
Jared Goff, QB, DET, Over 1.5 passing TD (+120)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is plus-money odds because the Ravens defense has only surrendered it once all season (to Joe Burrow). After looking at their record with a fine toothed comb, I come away unimpressed. You’re telling me they managed to shut down CJ Stroud in his first game ever, Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kenny Pickett and a Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis combo? Yeah, let’s not sell the farm on Baltimore’s defense just yet. For Goff, he is missing David Montgomery and facing a Ravens team ranked 25th in pressure rate and bottom half in hurry rate. The Cal product is playing some of the best football of his career and hit this line in 3 of 6 and 2 of the last 3. Even though he is on the road, I love this at plus-money odds. If you can no longer get this at plus odds, pivot to his yardage total at over 249.5. 1U.
Russell Wilson, QB, DEN, Over 23.5 rushing yards (-103)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’ve had a successful theory when handicapping QB rushing yards: find the teams that successfully bring pressure — it usually equates to more rush attempts when plays break down. Luckily in the NFL, sacks do not count as negative rush yards like they do in college. Wilson hit this line 2 times this season: vs Commanders (53) and vs Jets (27). Against the Chiefs he only had 13 yards, but on 4 carries. What do those 3 teams have in common? They are all top 10 in the NFL in QB pressure %. Green Bay lands 8th on that list and rank 9th in the NFL with 5 QB rush attempts per game. Numbers wise, Wilson is averaging 6.58 YPC this season and 5 rushes put him over this mark with ease. 1U.
Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL, Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Falcons’ offense feels like it should be better than it is and Robinson has been the saving grace this season. He is averaging an even 5.0 yards per carry this season and with such a small sample size from the rookie, it’s all we have to project with. This is essentially 11 carries for Robinson, who has hit that mark in 4 of 6 games and landed on 10 in the other 2 games. As for the opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not scare as a team that can turn this into a negative game script in which Desmond Ridder is playing from behind. The Bucs did a good job of Alexander Mattison and Craig Reynolds, but if you remove those 2 lackluster rushing attacks, they are allowing 5.5 YPC — including a dominant performance by D’Andre Swift. I’ll take my chances on Robinson being the workhorse on Sunday in a divisional game; after all, the NFC South is still up for grabs outside of Carolina. 1U and I would play it up to 56.5.
