Andrew Wilsher
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We are officially a quarter of the way through the NFL season and we’ve seen a ton of wild action already. With everything that we’ve seen, things are starting to become a lot clearer in terms of who is in contention for the playoffs and who can start looking towards April and the NFL Draft. That statement rings true also for player prop bettors, as we now have plenty of data to work with to help us spot some lines that can be exploited.
I just went 2-0 with my Broncos vs Chiefs props and am looking to have another big day on Sunday. Let’s get into our best NFL player prop bets for Sunday, and make sure you also target our NFL Week 6 predictions as we look to build on our +27.4 units of profit.
Logan Thomas, TE, WAS, Over 3.5 receptions (-125)
Line available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
Logan Thomas has been a favorite of mine from a prop-betting standpoint, and this game against the Falcons seems like a great time to target him. Thomas has been an important part of the Commanders’ offense for a number of years, and last time against the Bears he had 9 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. Sam Howell clearly views Thomas as a valuable security blanket and I can see him getting similar attention in this game against Atlanta.
The Falcons are tied-2nd for allowing the most receptions to tight ends in the NFL, and in their last 3 games they have given up 8 receptions to Sam LaPorta, 7 receptions to Evan Engram and 7 receptions to Dalton Schultz. The odds on this line have already been cut to -145 with FanDuel and DraftKings, so pounce on this number with Bet365 while you can.
Check out our full Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
Brock Purdy, QB, SF, Over 0.5 interceptions (+165)
Line available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
That’s right, we’re taking Brock Purdy to do something that he hasn’t done yet this season — throw an interception. Purdy has been solid under center this season with the 49ers currently holding a 5-0 record, and I fully expect them to extend that against PJ Walker and the Browns. But this Cleveland defense is something special. They’ve allowed just 500 passing yards total this season (avg 125 passing yards per game) and rate 2nd in passing yards allowed per attempt (4.7). A major part of that is because of their relentless pass-rush led by Myles Garrett, which has been running riot against quarterbacks and forcing them into making plenty of mistakes. Purdy has been accurate for the most part this season but, just like CJ Stroud, that first INT of the season is coming. And at +165 odds against a vicious defense, I’m banking on it coming against Cleveland.
Lock in our expert’s San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns picks
Zach Wilson, QB, NYJ, Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Our last pick sees us target another quarterback, but focusing on his rushing prop. Zach Wilson has somewhat stabilized himself after a disastrous couple of weeks, and has looked a lot more competent in performances against the Chiefs and Broncos. Part of that has been his willingness to use his legs in order to get crucial first downs. In his last 2 games, he has posted 14 and 26 rushing yards, while the Week 2 loss against the Cowboys saw him run the ball himself 5 times for 36 yards.
We don’t have much data to work off with quarterbacks running it against the Eagles, but the limited sample size is promising. Sam Howell ran the ball 6 times for 40 yards against them, while even Mac Jones used his legs twice for 15 yards in the season opener. Ultimately, Wilson isn’t afraid to scramble if the option isn’t there and I expect those opportunities to come at least a couple of times against the Eagles. Provided the Jets aren’t inexplicably in a position to kneel the ball at the end of the half or the game, a couple of runs should be enough to cash this prop.
Don’t miss our experts’ NFL picks this week — we’re up +27.4 units on sides and totals this season!
