NFL Picks

The Detroit Lions will be looking to solidify their new status as Super Bowl favorites when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. That’s right; the Detroit Lions are favored to win the Super Bowl. They assumed the top spot for the first time this season — and first time in franchise history — following this past week’s 52-6 humiliation of the Jacksonville Jaguars that coincided with the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss. And it’s hard to argue with the odds. Detroit is an absolute wagon from an offensive standpoint. Jared Goff bounced back from his interception barrage in Week 10 by torching Jacksonville for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25-of-29 passing. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2), David Montgomery (2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1) scored at least 1 touchdown in the same game for the 8th time in their careers — already a record for 3 teammates in the history of the NFL.

Indianapolis +3.5 against the New York Jets was a 3-star best bet winner for me in Week 11, but I’m prepared to fade the Colts this time. After all, facing the Lions is the most opposite extreme you can possibly get compared to facing the Jets. Indy squandered all of a 13-0 lead over the Jets before recovering late, so that really doesn’t inspire much confidence. Jonathan Taylor averaging just 2.4 yards per carry in that game also isn’t encouraging. What’s even more worrying is that the Colts rank 26th in the league against the pass and 25th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt. How do you think they are going to stop Goff, St. Brown and the rest of the gang? I would be more than happy to play this at -7.5, which you can get at plus money (+100) at time of publishing. However, at less than a touchdown (and PAT) it evokes max confidence. The Lions should continue to roll.

Lions vs Colts prediction: Lions -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5 (+100).

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This is the highest total of the week, although there are 2 games just a half-point lower at time of publishing. Despite the lofty number, I have no reservations about backing the over when the Lions are involved. Their 336 points scored this season are the most in the NFL, and only the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are even in the same ballpark. Goff and company have racked up 52 points in 2 of their last 4 outings and they have scored at least 42 points on 2 other occasions. Gibbs and Montgomery are arguably the best running-back duo in the league, more than worthy of having a nickname bestowed upon them (Sonic and Knuckles). Detroit can score on anyone, but the offense is especially scary in this situation against an opposing defense that stinks against the pass. Indianapolis isn’t any good against the run, either, ranking 28th in that department.

The only good news for the Colts is that Anthony Richardson is back under center and he once again flashed his potential with 3 total TDs against the Jets (2 rushing, 1 passing). Detroit should do most of the work, but Indy can also contribute a decent amount toward the over.

Lions vs Colts prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so for our 49ers vs Bills prediction, why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only were 4 of those 5 teams in the playoffs last season, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one for our 49ers vs Bills best bet.

49ers vs Bills prediction: Bills ML (+110) available at time of publishing.

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