Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We are almost done with a quarter of the NFL season and bye weeks are already coming into play. The London series is in full effect with the Jaguars (+5.5) staying put for a week while the Buffalo Bills come to town. Many of the Sunday games are very close in spread on their NFL Week 5 odds (only one double-digit line: Dolphins vs Giants), but on paper they still feel like mismatches.
The game of the week appears to be the Eagles (-4.5) against the Rams plus the London matchup mentioned above, as well as a Sunday Night Football thriller between the Cowboys and 49ers. Let’s look at the best NFL player prop bets to make.
Gus Edwards, RB, BAL, Over 43.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
This feels eerily similar to the Dameon Pierce play I was on last week — likely because it’s also against the Steelers, who are abysmal against the run. Edwards is averaging 4.4 ypc for the season and is coming off his highest snap count so far in 2023. In 3 straight games he has seen double-digit carries and I project he will need 10 to hit this line. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett comes in hobbled, and even if fully healthy I can’t see the Steelers pulling away offensively. Baltimore will rely on a heavy dose of the run with Edwards leading the way after providing exceptional pass protection against Cleveland last week. He will be needed again to keep TJ Watt away from Lamar Jackson. 1.5U.
Check out our full Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions
Alvin Kamara, RB, NO, Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Kamara was back last week for the first time this season and got right down to business in the passing game to the tune of 14 targets 13 receptions and a measly 33 yards. I expect a dumbwaiter effect to this performance this week against the Patriots: the receptions will go down and the yards will go up. Kamara has a career average of 5 receptions and 42.5 receiving yards per game. For Sunday I have him tabbed at 6 targets 4 receptions and 33 yards for this Saints offense. The Patriots are without Matthew Judon and top cornerback Christian Gonzalez, which should open this up for Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. In turn they will likely have a positive impact on the screens that New Orleans was forcing last week and get Kamara to break a few big plays. 1.5U.
Get our Saints vs Patriots picks for Sunday’s matchup
James Conner, RB, ARI, Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Conner is averaging 5.1 ypc this season and has hit this line in 3 of 4 games in 2023. He his undoubtedly the lead back in Arizona, with only Josh Dobbs to steal rush attempts away from the Pittsburgh native. In the 3 competitive games that Arizona played this season, Conner saw 14+ carries and hit this line comfortably. The Bengals are struggling to find their way offensively, partially due to Joe Burrow’s injury and partially due to poor offensive line play. The Cardinals are in the top half in pressure rate (22.2%) and that should allow them to keep it competitive. A big stat for me when handicapping rush props is “Opp Rushing First Downs.” It shows me how often a defense is bending to the run game and allowing the team to grab first physical first downs. The Bengals? They rank 27th in that stat and 25th Opp Rush Attempts per game. I like a heavy dose of Conner this Sunday. 1U.
Don’t miss our experts’ NFL picks this week — we went 11-4-1 on spreads in Week 4!
