Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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This Sunday kicks off the London games that we’ve all grown accustomed to these last few years, featuring the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars. We have 4 games this Sunday with totals over 46.5 and plenty of storylines to discuss with Ezekiel Elliot, Calvin Ridley, and Adam Thielen all playing their old teams. My game of the week is easily the Dolphins vs Buffalo and my upset of the week is the Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals on a short week. Let’s look at some player props.
Juwan Johnson (NO) over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Johnson gets his favorite quarterback back this week in Jameis Winston. Friendly reminder that last season with Winston under center, Johnson this line hit in 2/3 starts, averaging 12.1 yards per catch. This season, he’s played more than 70% of snaps in every game, but has not seen the same success with Derek Carr. This is 3 catches for Johnson who is playing a defense that plays deep Cover 2 that will allow a lot of short and intermediate throws to be completed to avoid being beat deep. 1U
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) over 23.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
In a world of Luke Musgrave’s and Sam LaPorta’s, Dalton Kincaid is a forgotten man. The rookie first-round pick had two solid starts catching 9 balls on 10 targets for 69 yards. Last week in a blowout against Washington with inclement weather, Kincaid was a forgotten man. This week he faces the hottest team in the league, Miami Dolphins, who are tied for the 5th most receptions per game to opposing TEs (5.67). This is realistically 3 catches for Kincaid, who hit this line in 2/3 to start the season. This is a 1.5U play for me.
Calvin Ridley (JAX) over 64.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m betting on Calvin Ridley. Yes, I’ve bet him every week and will continue to bet him every week when we get lines sub-68.5. This man is averaging 13.3 yards per catch this season and the Jaguars are making every effort to scheme him open and get him several deep shots a game. Did I forget to mention the fact that he’s playing the Falcons?! Yes, we get a revenge factor to start our Sunday morning off with Ridley facing his old team. On paper, the Falcons defense has defend the pass well, but after a closer look it may be more matchup based than anything. Opening up against the struggling Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young is helping their numbers, but Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown connected for 9 catches and 100 yards. Ridley should be in for the same. 1.5U
Logan Thomas (WAS) over 2.5 receptions (+135)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Thomas returns after being sidelined in Week 3 with concussion symptons. Thomas is a big bodied tight end and safety net for Sam Howell, who will need it this Sunday as 8 point underdogs on the road. He’s hit this in 1/2 games this season and had 8 targets in Week 1 for 4 receptions. In week 2, Thomas missed half the game after being hit over the middle by Kareem Jackson, still registering 2 catches on 3 targets in 40% of the snaps. We’re getting great value at +125 for a game that could see Washington playing from behind and it’s still early enough in the season that books are unsure how to handicap Thomas given his limited experience in 2023. 1U
