Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It’s Week 3 of the NFL, and we’re going to start seeing these lines get sharper as time goes on. Last week was littered with overs and big tickets on player props and this week has the potential to continue that streak. At first glance, there are 3 double-double spreads and 3 games with totals above 46.5. The game of the week this Sunday is between two winless teams, believe it or not, as the Chargers head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. Let’s take a look at our player props, and make sure to check out all of our NFL Week 3 predictions.
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Justin Herbert (LAC) over 8.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Herbert hit this in 1 of 2 games this season, with the miss coming against the stingy Titans defense that is dominant against the run. Herbert had 5 rushes for 17 yards against the Dolphins in Week 1, and I see this game being a similar track meet with the total set 53.5. For this career, this has a 56% hit rate and he sits at 3.9 ypc. The Vikings allowed 10 carries for 23 yards so far this season, and did a good job scheming for Jalen Hurts on the ground; this won’t be the case for Herbert. I expect Herbert to pick up first downs with his legs and in the 2 minute drill as this line is simply too low. He could realistically hit this in one rush and for that reason, we’re going 1U.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Jeudy made his debut last week and was disappointing: 5 targets, 3 receptions and 25 yards. This all game on 65% of the snaps, which I expect to increase slightly in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins. Jeudy did most of his damage from the slot last week (71% of snaps according to PFF). I’m going to throw the New England offense out the window because it just looks awful, even with Bill O’Brien. So let’s focus on Miami’s Week 1 matchup with the Chargers: Keenan Allen lined up in the slot 56% of the time and finished with 9 targets 6 receptions and 76 yards. For Jeudy, he hit this number in 11/15 games and 2 of those misses he played below 60 % of snaps. Realistically, he hit this line 11/13 games in 2022 with Wilson. It’s a good number and this is alt-line candidate for me at 75+. 1U
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CeeDee Lamb (DAL) over 69.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Lamb is quietly having himself an incredible start to the 2023 season. He’s cleared this line in both games and both were blowouts. Against the Jets vaunted defense, Lamb went for 13 targets, 11 receptions and 143 yards. His 55% receiving share is the highest since 1945… let that sink in. We may see Lamb receiving lines reach Justin Jefferson levels in a few weeks, but until then, we should take advantage. Mind you, the Cowboys have yet to be in a close game. 1U
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) over 264.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Tua sits atop the MVP race after two weeks, and we are all paying attention now. In Week 1, he went off for 466 yards and in Week 2 against a very good Patriots defense, he went a solid 21/30 for 249 yards. This week’s matchup against Denver could be explosive with the total set 48.5. He hit this line in 8/12 games last season where he played over 55 snaps and faces a Broncos defense that allowed Sam Howell to throw for 299 yards. I’m riding the Tua wave until further notice. 1U
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