Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NFL Week 1 is in the books and there was no shortage of storylines. Sadly we never got to see what the Jets’ offense would look like with Aaron Rodgers, and all 4 MVP favorites lost in Week 1 (Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert). Baker Mayfield pulled off an upset on the road… just like we all expected!
We had success in Week 1 and I truly believe lines do not become sharp until weeks 4-5 when books have a slightly larger data set. One of the biggest mistakes you can make is drawing grand conclusions from 1 game. We will continue to use insight from last year as a guide and make judgment calls on what our eyes saw last Sunday. Let’s get into my best NFL player prop bets for Week 2.
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Christian McCaffrey (SF) over 27.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
McCaffrey did a lot of his damage on the ground in Week 1, with 22 carries for 152 yards against the Steelers. His receiving total of 17 yards was his second lowest total as a member of the 49ers. Against the Rams last year he went for 7 receptions 89 yards and 8 receptions for 55 yards. This line may be an overreaction to Week 1’s performance, but I can’t see Kyle Shanahan rolling into a showdown with McVay repeating the same game plan as the week before. McCaffrey averaging 42 YPG as a member of the 49ers as a receiver and 4 receptions; by all accounts; Week 1 was an outlier. The Rams’ defense showed up tremendously against the Seahawks last week, but they lacked a pass-catching RB to really exploit a weakness of this LA defense: linebackers. Ernest Jones is a rangy ILB, but being flanked by Christian Rozeboom is a disaster waiting to happen this Sunday. This is 2U play for me and can be played up to 30.5 His alt line of 50+ for +285 holds a lot of value, as well.
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Baker Mayfield (TB) over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Mayfield looked really good last week against Minnesota, which had the highest blitz rate of any team in the NFL by a WIDE margin. He did a great job picking that up and being smart with the football taking what the defense gave him. Chicago doesn’t blitz. They ranked 28th overall in blitz rate and 24th overall in pressure rate. I’m expecting Mayfield to sit back and make decisions, getting through his progressions: and this is where problems start. He’s a gun-slinger at heart and will force things that may not be there with too much time on his hands. As a starter, Mayfield has thrown a pick in 41/70 games (58%). We are getting 50% implied odds, so some value right out of the game. The Bears actually did a solid job stifling the run last week, surrendering 2.9 ypc. Mayfield may have to make some plays this weekend. This train is never late. 1U.
Don’t miss our NFL picks for Week 2 — we went 22-9-1 in Week 1 for +22.9 units of profit!
James Cook (BUF) over 47.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Cook looked sharp against the best defense in the league at his first time as the lead back. Playing 59% of the snaps for 12 carries, I saw some explosive plays and the ability to get to the edge. The Las Vegas Raiders allowed 4.3 YPC in Week 1 and I can see Cook getting 2-3 more carries this week as they look to limit Allen’s turnovers. This is a game that can also get ugly, as the Bills will be reeling and coming back to Buffalo for their home opener. I have Cook projected around 54 to 55 yards on Sunday as he should get closer to his 5.7 ypc from last season. This line is 50.5 on other books, so act fast! 1.5U.
Nico Collins (HOU) over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing
25% target share in Week 1 against Baltimore and facing a suspect Colts secondary. Houston should struggle against the Colts front 7 getting the run game going, but Stroud with 44 pass attempts out of the gate instills confidence. Conservatively, if he bring that number down to 35 attempts, we can still project Collins at 8 targets and at 13.2 y/r for his career, 4 receptions should get him above this line with ease. I’m projecting 52 receiving yards for Collins with the potential to cross that 75 mark. 1U
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