Josh Gayle
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And just like that, NFL Week 18 and the final Sunday of the regular season is upon us. We have a few things still to clear up in terms of playoff positioning and seeding, but one thing that always comes to mind with NFL player props at this time of year is contract incentives. This was once a hugely popular spot for bettors to target, but the books have become extra sharp and vigilant in this area now, to the point where they may actually be more value in taking the under on some of these props.
With that in mind, let’s get into my best NFL player prop bets for Week 18’s Sunday slate, where I’m targeting Broncos receiver Marvin Mims and Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans. You can also find out the Pickswise team’s NFL picks on the side and total for every game in Week 18.
Marvin Mims (DEN) over 2.5 receptions (-150)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is a bet that may be overlooked on Sunday. Denver is one of the few teams with something to play for, where a victory will secure them a spot in the playoffs. Mims is trending upwards with his snap count and production. He has 3+ receptions in 5 straight games and is coming off a season-high 8 receptions last week against the Bengals. Kansas City is their opponent here and will be resting starters but should be somewhat serviceable still to keep Denver passing. I really think Denver comes out not just looking to win, but looking to make a statement that they should be taken seriously in the playoffs. Mims is talented and 3 catches feels too low for him here, so let’s drink the juice.
Read our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos predictions
Mike Evans (TB) under 100.5 receiving yards (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I will either look very smart or very foolish here. Mike Evans needs 85 yards to hit a major incentive for him financially. Of course, there will be an effort to get him those yards, but that doesn’t mean that anything is guaranteed. It feels like everyone in the world will be targeting Evans in this spot so that usually means that something silly happens. I’m cool fading the public here. If he ends between 86 and 100 then he hits his incentive but he still hits our under. Evans hasn’t seen a line this huge all season and for good reason. Evans is 11/13 on the under here and this game even has a small chance of dealing with weather conditions. Evans will be targeted by Baker Mayfield but a line of 100.5 feels way too high and is one I have to take the under on.
Read our full New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
