Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It feels good to have a full Sunday worth of games again as we head into Week 17. Many of these games have playoff implications while others are meaningful reps for younger guys trying to make an impression for next season. I will do my best to consider motivation as a factor when giving out my player props for the week, but when it comes to the NFL and only having 17 games in a season, you rarely see a lack of effort. The games that stand out to me are Panthers vs Bucs and Vikings vs Packers. Both are divisional games with the outcomes weighing heavily on playoff berths.
Curtis Samuel (WAS) over 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is strictly a play based on Curtis Samuel’s stats with Carson Wentz under center for the Commanders. Samuel has hit this line in 6 of 7 games that Wentz started at QB for Washington. In those games, he averages 7.8 targets, 5.28 receptions and 47.5 yards. RB Antonio Gibson will not dress on Sunday, so Samuel should be on the field more than his normal 60% of snaps in a 3rd-down RB role, but that will also lead to additional targets out of the backfield. 1U
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Brandin Cooks (HOU) over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Brandin Cooks returned last week and jumped right into the WR1 role again. He had a team-high 9 targets, but finished with only 34 yards receiving. The Jaguars are a much better matchup on paper for Cooks considering he’s hit this line in 4 of the last 5 against Jacksonville. The Jaguars rank 31st in Pass DVOA and 27th overall in DVOA against WR1s. This game is meaningless to the Jags as their playoff hopes ride entirely on the Week 18 matchup against Tennessee. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans predictions
Cam Akers (LAR) under 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Cam Akers is coming off his best game of the season, but it was the only game in which he has hit this line all year. Over the last 3 weeks, the Chargers are allowing the 6th-fewest rushing yards per game and have really settled in defensively. In that same span, they’re also allowing the fewest rush attempts per game. The Rams have been stagnant offensively under Baker Mayfield. Last week’s performance against Denver was more of a Christmas miracle than a turning of the corner and in Baker’s previous 2 starts the Rams averaged only 14.5ppg. If that continues on Sunday, they will likely have to abandon the run early as the Chargers will put up points against this Rams defense. 1U
Be sure to check out our full LA Rams vs LA Chargers predictions
Tom Brady (TB) over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is essentially a playoff game that we’re gifted 2 weeks early. If the Bucs win, they clinch a playoff berth and the NFC South. If the Panthers win, they need to win in Week 18 and they then clinch the NFC South. If there is a win-or-go-home situation on the line, I will always side with Tom Brady (especially at home). The Panthers have been playing inspired football, winning 3 of their last 4, but in that span, they’ve given up 3 TDs to Jared Goff and Geno Smith.
The storyline for the Bucs all season has been their overall health and level of engagement. They’ve looked disinterested at times and squeaked out wins against lesser opponents in New Orleans and Arizona recently. This game means something or else their season could be done. Brady has hit this in 50% of home games and gets a Panthers defense ranked 26th overall in Pass DVOA. Godwin, Evans, and Julio will all be playing. Fournette is coming off his best rushing performance since Week 10. It’s more of a “feel” play than I normally give out, but I like Brady to take control of this game and lead the Bucs to a 3rd straight NFC South title. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) over 81.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is the time of year that you go to your top talent to make plays and win games; even if you’re forcing it at times. For the Lions, St. Brown is the defacto WR1 and has been an integral piece of their late playoff run. He’s posted double-digit targets in 4 of the last 5 games (with the one short being 9 targets) and he’s eclipsed 100+ yards receiving 4x this year, with 2 coming in the last 5 weeks.
St. Brown has seen tough one-on-one matchups against Sauce Gardner and Jaycee Horn these last two weeks and still put up 76 yards receiving. This week, he gets the gift of the Chicago Bears’ defense at home. Chicago is ranked 31st overall in pass DVOA vs WR1 and 29th overall in pass DVOA. St. Brown exploded against the Bears in Week 9 for 11 targets 10 receptions and 119 yards. I’m expecting another big game when Detroit needs it the most. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions predictions
Latavius Murray (DEN) over 43.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This will seem counterintuitive to many. The Chiefs are a high-flying offense that make teams completely abandon the run in hopes of keeping up on the scoreboard. Well, tell that to the Houston Texans, who ran the ball 28 times for 98 yards against the Chiefs in Week 15. That game ended in a 30-24 Chiefs win, but the Texans had the right approach. If you can control the clock and keep Mahomes on the sidelines, you have a shot.
The Broncos are coming off a Christmas Day drubbing from the LA Rams and recently fired first-year HC Nathaniel Hackett. Members of the team were outspoken in defense of Russell Wilson and in situations like this, you see the team come out the following week highly motivated. Murray has hit this line in 3 of the last 5 games as a starter and will need another double-digit carry day to get it done. Murray averaged 4.0 YPC in 4/5 starts and will play an integral part of Sunday’s divisional matchup. At 32 years old, he’s not just playing for his spot on the team next year, he’s playing to stay in the league. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
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