Andrew Wilsher
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It’s crunch time in the 2021 NFL season as we arrive at Week 17, and we’re now just two weeks away from playoff football. Players and top teams will be more motivated than ever to hit peak form heading into the postseason, while other guys will be looking to prove their worth with only a couple of games to go.
Let’s get down to my two favorite NFL player props of the Sunday slate, but make sure you also check out our expert NFL picks and NFL predictions for every single game. It’s the smart thing to do.
NFL Player Props: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) under 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
This line for Tannehill is way too high. He has failed to top 220 passing yards in each of his last 4 games, and has done so only once in his last 7. Now he’s supposed to do it against a Dolphins defense that is eating quarterbacks alive right now? I’m not buying it. Miami’s “blitz first, ask questions later” mentality on defense has been the driving force behind their seven-game winning streak, and I’m expecting them to have more success here as they take on a Titans team that ranks 4th in the league in most sacks allowed. Expect Tannehill to be under constant pressure and to be on his backside multiple times.
The Dolphins have kept each of their last 4 opposing quarterbacks under this number, although that isn’t saying much given that has been against Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Cam Newton. But the point is that this defense is shutting down the passing game, and even with revenge on his mind I’m not sure Tannehill has it in him to overcome them. The fact the line for this total has dropped below 40 indicates that the books and sharps are predicting a defensive battle, and if that plays out look for Tannehill to be frustrated.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans
NFL Player Props: Joe Mixon (CIN) over 71.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Two big-time offenses collide this week when the Chiefs meet the Bengals, and I’m banking on Joe Mixon to have a big game. I’ve been sweet on Mixon for a while now and although he’s been a little inconsistent lately, I’m predicting plenty of yards on the ground for the Oklahoma product. Mixon had 135 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns last week in the 41-21 blowout against the Ravens, of which 65 of those yards were on the ground. He’s benefiting also from the success of Joe Burrow and the passing game — defenses are having to cater for that which gives Mixon the opportunity to make a big play on the ground.
In terms of his opponent this week, the Chiefs had struggled mightily against the pass early in the season but now it’s their run defense that is having problems. In terms of yards per carry allowed, Kansas City is tied for 3rd-worst at 4.7. That isn’t too shocking when you look back at their past few games. Despite crushing the Steelers last week, Najee Harris was still able to put up 93 rushing yards. The week before, Justin Jackson had 86 for the Chargers. Two weeks before that, Javonte Williams had 102. You get the picture, and I’d argue Mixon is a more talented running back than all of those players. He is laser-focused on getting this Bengals team to the playoffs, and I’m expecting him to at least do his part in trying to make that a reality.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
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