Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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This Saturday for Christmas Eve we are gifted 12 NFL games. Weather will have a huge impact on quite a few games, particularly New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns. This game has the lowest total all season at 32.5. The highlight of the day is certainly Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys, with Gardner Minshew stepping in for the injured Jalen Hurts. The Green Bay Packers try to keep their playoff hopes alive as they travel down to Miami in Saturday’s primetime matchup. I’m coming off my best weekend of the season(+6.21U) and hope to continue that streak into Week 16.
Joe Burrow (CIN) over 9.5 rushing yards (-120)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This goes back to my philosophy on targeting mobile QBs against teams with very good pass-rush ability and who blitz very little. The logic is that QBs with the ability to get out in space will take off when they feel pressure from the front 4 and the additional defenders in the back half of the field make it harder to find open targets. Good quarterbacks,when faced with pressure from the blitz, will often pick up where it is coming from and get the ball out. So where does New England fall into that category? The Patriots generate pressure more than any team in the league (26.8% of snaps) and rank 15th overall in blitz rate. The Patriots secondary is ranked 2nd overall in Pass DVOA.
The Patriots allow 5.5 ypc against opposing QBs and we have seen their defense allow this line 6 times this season. Burrow is not an elite runner by any stretch of the imagination, but he is in the second tier with Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones. Let’s see if my theory continues to hold true. 1.5U
James Cook (BUF) over 28.5 rushing yards (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Bills are breaking their two-game streak of divisional opponents and face a Chicago Bears team on the road ranked 27th overall in Rush DVOA. Cook is a rookie RB who could prove valuable in the playoffs when they should play the likes of Kansas City and Cincinnati. He has pass-catching and breakaway big-play ability as we’ve seen in limited opportunities. This is a perfect opportunity to get Cook significant number of touches in cold weather, late in the season to prepare him accordingly. He’s hit this line in 3 of the last 5 games and this is a game that should be out of reach by halftime. I can see Cook getting 6-8 carries and maybe breaking one for a large gain. The Bears have allowed 8 rushes of 20+ yards or more all season (60% of games), making this an ideal matchup for him. 1U
Darius Slayton (NYG) over 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I feel guilty continuing to pick on Patrick Peterson, but he hasn’t given me a reason not to so far this season. The Giants travel to Minnesota, which is favorable this time of year considering they will be in a dome. Darius Slayton is locked in as the Giants’ WR1 and has seen 6+ targets in 4 of the last 5 games. His yardage has dipped over the last two and it’s directly related to his inability to generate yardage in chunk plays like he did earlier in the season. Against the Vikings, they shouldn’t be a problem. They’re allowing a 20+ yard reception 2.71 times per game, tied for 3rd-worst in the league. The Vikings defense will be focused on stopping Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley from getting going in the run game, which will give the Giants opportunities to take shots early. This line has dipped below the 57.5 we were accustomed to seeing in the middle of the season for Slayton and I love the opportunity to pick on a defense that allows big plays with frequency. 1U
Geno Smith (SEA) over 1.5 passing TDs (+110)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Geno Smith got his first Pro Bowl nod this week and is the current favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. Seattle is 7-7 and on the outside looking in for the last NFC wild-card spot with a huge road game against the Kansas City Chiefs ahead. Losing Tyler Lockett for the week is a big blow but getting this at plus-odds is a too good to ignore. Smith has hit this line in 6 of 7 road games this season and 11 of 14 on the year. As far as the matchup, the Chiefs have given up this line in 13 of 15 games! Smith will need to rely heavily on his tight ends Noah Fant and Will Dissly this Saturday. Luckily the Chiefs rank 17th in DVOA against TEs and have allowed 7 TDs on the season. Did I forget to mention they still have DK Metcalf? Yeah, sign me up. 1U
Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sam Darnold (CAR) longest completion over 32.5 yards (-122)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Very similar to the Meyers play, PFF provides great data on the Panthers’ offensive line’s ability to pass block (3rd-lowest pressure rate) and the Lions’ inability to generate pressure (21st overall). This all contributes to Darnold’s ability to take shots down field. He has hit this line in 2 of 3 starts so far and it helps that the Lions rank 28th overall in DVOA vs deep passes. They have given up 7 plays of 40+ yards (2nd worst in the league) and 44 plays of 20+ yards (worst). You can play this up to 33.5, but I’m on it for 1U.
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