Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Our Sunday slate is slightly smaller than usual with Saturday having 3 games, but there is a lot to like in the matchups this week. There are 4 games with the total above 46.5, and I’ve found some soft lines for a change. The NFL player prop market has been extremely sharp this season and I credit the books for allocating resources to focus on this segment as the market has grown versus sides/totals. Let’s take a look at my favorite player props of the day!
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Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 11.5 rushing yards (-113)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Lawrence has the unfortunate task of facing this Dallas Cowboys front 4 that is the best in the league in getting to the quarterback. They are #1 in pressure rate and #7 in hurry rate. They manage to do all of this while being middle of the pack (13th) in blitz rate. So, what does that mean for Lawrence’s rushing yards? Well, I’m a firm believer that when QBs see consistent pressure, they are more likely to tuck the ball and take off. For Lawrence, he’s more than capable of making plays with his legs, averaging 4.74 Y/A. This line is well below his season average of 16.8 Y/G and I can see a scenario where the Jags are playing from behind. Six QB’s have hit this mark against the Cowboys all season and I expect Lawrence to be the 7th. 1U
Our Week 15 mega parlay has +981 odds!
Drake London (ATL) Over 43.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Desmond Ridder gets his first start of his career this Sunday and I believe it will have a positive impact on London’s stat line. London and Ridder are very close off the field and spent time over the bye week running through plays together and getting reps outside of practice. Ridder’s start can only improve a stagnant passing game that was led by Marcus Mariota. He rarely pushed the ball down field and his rhythm with London was inconsistent best. We saw glimpses of London’s draft stock through the first 3 weeks and then it tailed off. Despite Mariota’s deficiencies, London has had 6 catches of 20+ yards or more this season and I expect him to get more opportunities in that regard on Sunday. It helps that New Orleans is 28th overall in DVOA vs WR1 and Saints CB Paulson Adebo is one of the worst graded cover corners in the league according to PFF. 1U
Gerald Everett (LAC) Over 3.5 receptions (+105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Everett has thrived since the return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in recent weeks. The 6th year TE has shown flashes of being a top-tier tight end, but inconsistencies from week to week have prevented him from entering that discussion. We’ve only seen Allen/Williams together in 3 games this season and over those 3 games, Everett averages 7 targets 4 receptions and 48.3 yards. He’s hit this line in 8/12 (66%) games this season and the Titans allow 8 targets for 66 yards per game to opposing TEs. You can pivot to over 31.5 receiving yards as well, but I like the plus money value his receptions total brings. 1U
Jalen Hurts (PHI) Over 224.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hurts was under scrutiny this week from Micah Parsons on a recent podcast, explaining that he may not be MVP, but rather, the team is just that good. While Hurts handled it well, you have to think this is festering in some way. The Eagles take on the Bears this week and it’s a great opportunity for Hurts to stifle any critics. They are one of the worst teams in the league at generating pressure, they are 32nd overall in DVOA vs WR1, and 31st overall in Pass DVOA. For Hurts, he’s been nothing short of amazing when he’s kept clean: 75% completion percentage, 8.9 YPA. The Bears also blitz at a bottom 10 rate in the league (17% of the time). When Hurts isn’t blitzed? 71% completion percentage, 8.6 YPA. He’s hit this line in 4/6 games on the road. 1U
Dak Prescott (DAL) over 255.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Prescott has only started two games on the road this season, but he’s performed well. He’s averaging 270 Y/G in those spots and is completing nearly 60% of his passes. This Jacksonville defense is a great opportunity for Prescott. They rank 30th overall in Pass DVOA and 31st in DVOA against passes to the middle of the field. This is where Prescott does a lot of his damage; 42% of Dak’s attempts are towards the middle. Dalton Schultz should be in for a big day as well. The Jags are allowing 263 Y/G to opposing QB and the only thing that would scare me about this number is a blowout. 1U
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