Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NFL Saturdays are officially here. Today’s slate has three games, two of which are divisional matchups. The game I have my eye on the most is Miami traveling to Buffalo. The Dolphins lived up to the hype in the first half of the season but have now dropped two straight. Buffalo is coming off an ugly win over the Jets but this win would all but clinch the AFC East divisional crown.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) over 5.5 receptions (-128)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If we take last week’s matchup against the Cowboys out of consideration, Pittman has performed exceptionally well under interim head coach Jeff Saturday. It has been a point of emphasis to get Pittman the ball through Weeks 10-12, in which he has had 9, 7 and 11 targets. He turned those opportunities into 7, 6 and 7 receptions. His matchup this Saturday is with aging veteran Patrick Peterson and it couldn’t be a better one for Pittman in a bounce-back game. According to PFF, the Vikings defense ranks 31st in PPR points allowed per game to opposing WRs and Peterson is allowing a passer rating of 120.8 on the outside. We’ve seen Peterson give up an 80% catch rate in 5 of the last 6 games. If the game script goes into the negative and the Vikings get out to an early lead, it can only help Pittman reach this number when the Colts start to play catchup. 1U
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) over 3.5 receptions (-110)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s a small sample size with Deshaun Watson returning, but I’m willing to make leap considering where this line is at. DPJ had his best game of the season last week, finishing with 13 targets and 8 receptions against the Bengals. The former Michigan Wolverine lined up on the right side for the 7th time this season and the 2nd straight game, and that is where he’s really thrived, hitting this line in 5 of 7 games. What makes me believe that last week wasn’t a flash in the pan are the advanced metrics on the game. DPJ saw highest aDOT, highest % of snaps out wide, and highest number of snaps when he ran a route. And as good as Jacoby Brissett played this season, these are the types of things you look for in an offense transforming way from the run-heavy approach of the last few seasons. On the matchup, Jones will see Marcus Peters who has a reception rate of 80% in 4 straight games. Amari Cooper will have a tough matchup in his former Crimson Tide teammate Marlon Humphrey, so I like DPJ to have another big week as Watson continues to settle in. 1U
Check out our Ravens vs Browns Same Game Parlay
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) longest reception over 21.5 (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I rarely do this, but I feel that the books are behind on this angle, so I want to capitalize with two bets on the same player. Aside from everything mentioned above, the Ravens defense on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield is 32nd in EPA per pass play, 32nd in yards per attempt, 32nd in explosive play rate, and 26th in Passer Rating. This line is 22.5 on other books, but the lower the better. DPJ has hit this in both games with Watson under center and he has hit this in both career starts against the Ravens. That was with Brissett and Baker Mayfield at QB. 1U
Read our Colts vs Vikings Same Game Parlay.
Trent Sherfield (MIA) under 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
We’re getting a REAL snow game this Sunday in Buffalo when Miami travels north in the AFC East matchup. It’s almost fitting that the second installment of this series is the exact opposite of the overheated upset we saw in Week 3. Buffalo is expecting 18-24 inches of snow and it should be snowing during the game. Aside from the weather, Sherfield gets a tough matchup in Bills CB Taron Johnson and Tre’Davious White continues to improve upon his Week 12 return. If you add that duo to Dane Jackson, you can make the case that Buffalo’s secondary is getting healthy at the right time. Sherfield has been boom-or-bust all season. He’s had 1 reception in 6/13 games and is coming off a 1-reception 7-yard performance against the Chargers on Sunday. Given the matchup and weather conditions, I’m unsure what we can expect of Sherfield, but the explosive plays that he’s racked up these last 6 weeks will be tough to come by. 1U
Check out our full Bills vs Dolphins predictions.
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