Another NFL Sunday is upon us. The last quarter of the season kicks off for most teams on Sunday, with over half of the league continuing to jockey for playoff position. As always, our team gets you ready for the heavy action on sides and totals, but here, I’m focusing on some player prop bets that have caught my eye.
I look to continue on my 74-38 record this season in the player prop realm. For this week, I’ve found some value with two wide receivers, projecting both to have big days.
Allen Robinson over 5.5 receptions
Playable at 5.5 receptions up to -130
Robinson has made a career of flourishing in highly inconsistent offenses. This season remains no different with the struggling Bears. Robinson has had at least six receptions in his last five games, and in eight of twelve games this season. The Bears are back with Mitch Trubisky under center, and he loves to key in on his top receiver. Robinson has a 24% target share this season, which ranks eigth in the NFL. But, with Trubisky, that number bumps up to 27%.
The Texans defense has been a hot mess this year. The secondary has allowed the eleventh most receptions by opposing wide receivers (13.6 per game), and are now without arguably their best cover cornerback, Bradley Roby, who is suspended. The Texans have allowed their opposition’s most targeted receiver to catch at least six passes in eight of their last nine games. Robinson has lead the Bears in targets in all but three games this season, including every game with Trubisky under center.
I project Robinson with at least ten targets, putting him in line to easily eclipse six receptions versus the soft Texans secondary.
Brandon Aiyuk over 52.5 receiving yards
Playable up to 56.5 receiving yards
Sticking with a 49ers wide receiver this week, but instead of Deebo, we move over to Aiyuk. Why? Well to put it simply, 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens throws to him more often. In the five games they’ve played together without star tight end, Geroge Kittle, Aiyuk has a 27% target share of Mullens’ attempts. For context, that would rank fifth in the NFL amongst receivers (similarly to Robinson above). He converts those targets at a rate of 7.8 yards, meaning he’d need at least seven targets to hit this. How likely is that?
Well, the matchup versus the Football Team isn’t ideal, at first glance. Washington is allowing opposing wide receivers 19.4 targets per game (13th least in the NFL), and 147.8 yards (7th least). But, Washington has proven vulnarable to outside receivers, such as Aiyuk. In 10 of their 12 games, the Football Team has allowed at least one receiver who primarily lines up on the outside to exceed 52 yards. And, they’ve allowed seventeen opposing receivers to receive at least seven targets in only twelve games. So yes, seven targets is very do-able.
Mullens is averaging 35 pass attempts per game in his four starts, and Washington is allowing opposing quarterbacks 33 attempts. Assuming the latter to stay conservative, that would project Aiyuk at almost nine targets. So despite the tough matchup, this line remains too low for Aiyuk. I have his yardage pegged in the high 60s.
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