Sunday night ends another jam-packed day of football with arguably the most intriguing matchup on the slate. The 9-3 Bufalo Bills host the 11-1 Pittsburgh Steelers, fresh off their surpising first loss of the season. Both teams will be looking to solidify their respective division leads as the playoffs loom.
The home team Bills come in as two point favorites in this one, with a game total of over/under 48.5. A game of this magnitude is sure to get plenty of action, so be sure to check out our picks and full game preview here.
As for player props, this game is flush with talent on both sides of the ball. I was able to identify one matchup specifically that I’ll be looking for the Steelers offense to exploit, involving their talented tight end.
Eric Ebron over 39.5 receiving yards
Playable up to 42.5 receiving yards
In his first year with the Steelers, Ebron is again flashing the talent that made him a first round pick back in 2014. Despite a crowded receiving core, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to feed Ebron targets. Ebron has seen eleven throws his way each of the last two games, and at least six targets in six of the last seven. While the Steelers tight end’s per game average is right on this total at 40 yards, the matchup is fantastic.
The Bills have allowed the second most receiving yards to tight ends this season, at 67 yards per game. They’ve also permitted a league highs in target share to tight ends at 25%, and receptions at 73. Opposing tight ends are coverting each target into 8.3 yards. All in all, the Bills linebackers have struggled in coverage. With Ebron as one of the faster tight ends in the NFL, I like him to create separation down the middle of the field.
Roethlisberger’s pass attempts line is set at over/under 42.5, with prices favoring the over. For the sake of conservatism, we’ll assume he lands on 40 attempts, which is right on his season average. Even if you just use Ebron’s numbers since week 2, when he started playing at least 70% of offensive snaps, he’d be projected at 44 yards (using his 17% target rate and 6.4 yards per target). This has yet to factor in the matchup, which lends to more volume and efficiency, as well as Ebron’s increased usage over the second half of the season. I have Ebron projected at seven targets and his yardage in the high 40s in this one.
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