Josh Gayle
Show Bio
The NFL season rolls on with Week 12 already underway, and if this Sunday’s matchups are just as thrilling as that Steelers vs Browns finale on Thursday Night Football then we should be in for a treat. Among Sunday’s games are Vikings vs Bears, Cowboys vs Commanders, 49ers vs Packers and Eagles vs Rams on SNF. The lines are getting sharper on the player props market but I’m confident I’ve found a couple of picks that will get us to the window.
For those that don’t know me, my name is Joshua Gayle, or better known as ThatGuyBets. I have been betting on NFL, NBA and MLB player props on Twitter/X since December 2020, and have my best NFL player prop bets for the Week 11 Sunday slate below, where I’m targeting Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Cardinals running back James Conner. You can also find out the Pickswise team’s NFL picks on the side and total for every game in Week 12 and throughout the entire season.
Drake Maye (NE) over 33.5 pass attempts (+100)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM and available at time of publishing.
This looks like a great bet at plus-money odds. Maye is already 34.5 elsewhere and I like it there too. New England enters this game as 7.5-point underdogs which should mean that they have to pass throughout all 4 quarters. When Drake Maye starts and New England loses the game, he has thrown for an average of 37.5 passes a game. This Miami team is perfect to target because they are capable of deep balls that can help our game script but also help New England get the ball back and not get pounded on time of possession. Miami has allowed the last 4 quarterbacks they have faced to smash this number against them. I truly think this number should be 35.5 so getting 2 attempts lower at plus-money odds looks to hold great value.
Read our full New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins predictions
James Conner (ARZ) 60+ rushing yards (-145)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
This one is a little juicy but we’re buying this one down a bit. James Conner finds himself in a great matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks are allowing the 3rd-most rushing yards per game to running backs. I’ve noticed a trend with Conner and it’s that he doesn’t put together back-to-back stinkers. Last week was most definitely a rough game for him, but he seems to bounce back every single time. Arizona is in the lead for their division and should rely on their bell-cow back to produce in this big-time matchup. I think Conner can get 60 by the 3rd quarter here if he’s running like we know he can.
Read our full Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks predictions
