Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
Week 12 NFL Sunday is upon us. I’m ready to put the Thanksgiving Day mishap behind me and really attack this 11-game afternoon slate. There are a few interesting storylines that I’m excited to see this weekend. Can the Commanders make a legitimate playoff push? How do the Jets perform offensively with Mike White under center? And why is Russell Wilson only a 1.5-point favorite against Sam Darnold? Every game down the stretch has playoff implications and these are the months we see the cream rise to the top for end of the year awards.
Let’s look at my favorite player props!
Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS Over 60.5 receiving yards (-125)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
When I see a line this low for a WR1 getting 36% of his teams target share, I just can’t help myself. McLaurin has been quietly putting together an outstanding season despite a QB change mid-year. The 4th-year WR is averaging a ridiculous 15.8 yards per reception and 5.3 yards after catch per reception. His matchup this week is an Atlanta Falcons defense that’s been a cash cow for WRs. A total of 15 wide receivers have cleared this line against the Falcons this season and we have seen big days from the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd, DJ Moore and Josh Palmer. ATL is 28th overall in defensive pass DVOA and McLaurin should be inline for 9+ targets. This is my 2U play of the weekend and will be an alt-line candidate for 90+.
Latavius Murray, RB, DEN Over 57.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Melvin Gordon is out of the picture and Murray will be the lead back in Week 12. Marlon Mack will spell him occasionally, but its Murray’s job going forward. You could make the argument the change was made 3 weeks ago when Murray began taking most of the rush attempts. Regardless, he should see 16-19 carries this Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. From a matchup perspective, it’s going to be hard for Sam Darnold to find success against this Broncos defense; they really did him no favors making Denver his first start of the year. With that said, I can see this game either remaining close or being a blowout should Denver gain an early lead. Either way, it means Murray should see a lot of opportunities. The Panthers are allowing more than 8 rushing first downs per game (29th overall) and 4.5 ypc. This line is 61.5 on some sites, so I love it at FanDuel’s opening line of 57.5. 1U
Justin Herbert, QB, LAC Over 11.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I noticed a trend in Justin Herbert rush attempts and who we see spikes against. Against teams that are successful in QB hurries or have a high % of pressures (no they are not the same), Herbert sees an increase in rush attempts. Herbert has rushed the ball 5 times in 3 games this year. Those have come against Cleveland, San Francisco and Kansas City. The Browns are 3rd in hurry %, the 49ers are 4th in pressure % and the Chiefs are top 7 in both. The concept is that teams that who can consistently get pressure will see QBs tuck the ball and take off to pick up yardage when a play breaks down. I reviewed the Cardinals’ rushing stats allowed to opposing QBs this season and noticed that 5 had hit this line. They also had 4+ rush attempts in 7 of 11 games. 1U on this.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, ATL Under 48.5 Rushing Yards -115
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Since returning from injury in Week 9, it’s been tough to peg down Patterson’s weekly workload. He’s seen as many as 13 carries and as few as 5 in the last 3 games. The Falcons are admittedly high on rookie Tyler Allgeier, so much so that the carry split is practically even between the two over the last 3 weeks. From an opportunity perspective, Patterson should fit in at the 10-11 carry mark, but that can all change in Allgeier gets the hot hand early. If he does get 10 carries, I’m not sure that’s enough to hit this mark as he’s averaging just barely 4YPC over the L3. The Commanders are a top rush defense in terms of yards per game and yards per carry. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are the anchors in the middle of that defensive line that have held the Eagles to 94 total rushing yards, the Titans to 105 rushing yards, and the Texans to 21 total rushing yards. The gameplan to beating ATL is to force Mariota to throw the ball and no one is better equipped to do so than this Commanders defensive front. Too many things must go right for Patterson hit this number that he’s only cleared once in the last 3 games. We’ve yet to see him eclipse 50% of the offense snaps since returning from injury so I’m fading Patterson this week. 1U
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, SF Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Garoppolo is one of, if not thee, best quarterback in the league against the blitz. His completion % (2nd overall) and yards per attempt (1st overall) are at the top when comparing him to his peers in this matter. Well unfortunately for him this Sunday, the New Orleans Saints blitz only 16.8% of the time (24th fewest). The Saints rank 7th overall in opponent completion percentage, 7th in opp passing yards per game, and 10th in opp passing yards per attempt. This is not a good matchup for Jimmy G at all and to make matter worse, Deebo Samuel is questionable with a hamstring issue. The number itself is interesting. Fanduel is at 244.5, while DK and BetMGM are at 238.5/239.5. At the Fanduel number of 244.5, I love this for 1.5U, considering he has not hit this in any of the last 3 game despite completing 73% of his passes in that span. I see this as a low scoring, run heavy game. I love the Saints +8.5 and the under while we’re on the subject.
Michael Carter, RB, NYJ Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
In 2021, Mike White started 3 games for the Jets and played significant time in 4. In those 4 games, White targeted Michael Carter in the passing game 31 times. That was good for a 23% target share despite the small sample size. He also averaged 59 receiving yards per game in that span! I love this play, as a RB checkdown is an inexperienced quarterbacks best friend. Chicago is allowing 30.5 receiving yards to opposing RBs this season and 7.5 yards per reception. From a DVOA perspective, the Bears rank 22nd overall in short yardage passing. Realistically, Carter should be in for 5-6 targets and blow this line out of the water. I don’t mind dying on this hill if the numbers support it, 1.5U on Carter.
Gerald Everett, TE, LAC Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
The Chargers will be without Mike Williams this week but will get Keenan Allen in back-to-back games for the first time all season. Everett should slide into the 3rd receiving option behind Allen and Palmer this Sunday against the best matchup a TE can have in this league: the Arizona Cardinals. They allow the most targets per game, receptions per game, and yards per game to opposing TEs this season. I chose the receptions play over the yards because it’s safer and something he’s hit with more frequency. Everett has seen 6+ targets in 6/9 game this season and hit this line in 5/9. With Williams out of the line-up, he should see his targets in that 8-9 range and hit this number with no problem. 1U
Kyren Williams, RB, LAR Over 1.5 Receptions (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Darrell Henderson was released this week leaving only Cam Akers and Kyren Williams to field the bulk of the snaps. We’ve seen Williams snap count increase over these last two weeks, and it’s expected to rise again this Sunday in a game that will likely see the Rams playing from behind. Williams played 55% of the snaps last week, but he played nearly all the 3rd down and two-minute drill snaps at RB. Akers will likely be the early down RB getting most of the carries, but Williams will be the pass catcher of this duo. The Rams will start Bryce Perkins at QB this week and while Perkins is extremely talented with his legs, his ability to push the ball down field is limited. I’m expecting several checkdown situations that gets Williams as many as 5+ targets today. The rookie RB already hit this line in 1/2 games in his career and the game script should give him plenty of opportunities to have his best game on paper this season. 1.5U
Get our expert’s best bets for this week’s NFL slate!
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
