Josh Gayle
Show Bio
Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season is upon us and we’ve got a whole host of huge matchups to get excited for on Sunday, including Ravens vs Steelers, Seahawks vs 49ers and, of course, Chiefs vs Bills. The lines are beginning to get sharper on the player props market but I’m confident I’ve found a couple of picks that will get us to the window.
For those that don’t know me, my name is Joshua Gayle, or better known as ThatGuyBets. I have been betting on NFL, NBA and MLB player props on Twitter/X since December 2020, and have my best NFL player prop bets for the Week 11 Sunday slate below, where I’m targeting Seattle running back Kenneth Walker in Seahawks vs 49ers and Cleveland running back Nick Chubb in Browns vs Saints. You can also find out the Pickswise team’s NFL picks on the side and total for every game in Week 11 and throughout the entire season.
Kenneth Walker (SEA) over 23.5 receiving yards (-120)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM and available at time of publishing.
This is a bet that shouldn’t be available come kickoff on Sunday. Walker has hit this prop in 6 straight games and he smashed this against San Francisco in their earlier matchup this year. The last time we saw Walker against this same 49ers defense, it was a barrage of passes going his way. Walker had a season-high 8 receptions against the Niners and that was no fluke. Seattle is a near-touchdown underdog and will likely be in a passing game script. Walker is an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands so Seattle will have to get him in space in creative ways. Walker is unlikely to find much success in the ground game so I love him to help contribute in the passing game here. San Francisco allows the 8th-most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL. 24 yards feels too low as I would personally play this up to 29.5.
Read our full Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
Nick Chubb (CLE) over 14.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM and available at time of publishing.
I’m a Nick Chubb guy. He has hit this prop in 2 of 3 games this year despite not getting a good run script. He ran 15 times last week in a game where the Browns got blown out and 16 times the week before in a game against the Ravens in which Cleveland needed a come-from-behind victory. Cleveland vs New Orleans here is a near-pick’em. Chubb has the upside to cash in a negative script but if he finds himself playing with a lead this should hit with ease. New Orleans has allowed the 13th-most rush attempts to running backs in the league. We don’t even need Chubb to be efficient with his carries, we just need him to have high volume. I believe Jameis Winston will keep Cleveland in a script where running should be viable. Nick Chubb should see 15 handoffs here and I LOVE this bet.
Don’t miss our NFL parlay picks for Sunday’s slate at HUGE +1628 odds!
