Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We are in NFL Week 11 and there are no shortage of storylines to be had. Justin Fields returns under center, the Browns will trot out Dorian Thompson-Robinson against a divisional opponent in the Steelers, Miami returns from a bye with a chance to put a stranglehold on the AFC East and Kyler Murray squares off against CJ Stroud.
Last week was a down week for me, so let’s bounce back accordingly.
Justin Fields, QB, CHI Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
It wouldn’t be a week of player prop betting from me if I didn’t have a QB rushing prop. Fields returns this week against the Detroit Lions who are 5-0 ATS against teams below .500 and with the spread set at Bears +7.5 this screams Chicago playing from behind much of the game. Fields is returning from a thumb injury, so his confidence in deep and intermediate passes may not be there right out of the gate — but he sure can trust his legs. Last season Fields hit this line twice against Detroit for 147 and 132 rushing yards. I love this spot for 1.5U and his alternate lines are also going to be worth playing (75+ is +360 and 100+ is +1125).
Kyler Murray, QB, ARI Over 238.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
Last week in his first game back this season, Murray threw the ball 32 times for 249 yards against the 10th-ranked passing defense in terms of yards per game. This week he plays the Houston Texans, who ranked 24th in the same metric–allowing 246.4 YPG. There is familiarity there for head coach DeMeco Ryans facing Murray as San Francisco’s defensive coordinator, but the talent level on this defense is nowhere near the same. I expect this game to be fireworks and we could see Murray increase those passing attempts and flirt with a 300-yard game. 1U
Baker Mayfield, QB, TB Under 235.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
This is a line that Mayfield has exceeded in 6 of 9 games this season, but San Francisco is a different animal. He has missed this line against Detroit and Philadelphia, who do a fantastic job of getting pressure on the quarterback while blitzing very little. San Francisco is another team that fits that mold and should be a nightmare for Mayfield on Sunday. Another thing that the 49ers have in common with the Lions and Eagles? Time possession. All 3 teams are top 5 in the NFL in TOP. 1U.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
This line is back down to where we were used to seeing Kincaid a few weeks ago because of the Jets’ vaunted defense. What the bookmakers overlooked is that New York excels in perimeter coverage with cornerbacks and the middle of the field is left for the taking. Josh Allen will do just that in hopes of picking up a much-needed divisional win Sunday. Since Dawson Knox’s departure, Kincaid has had 5 receptions in 4 straight games and hit this line in every single one. With Knox still out, I’m playing Kincaid; this number is just too low for someone who should see up to 8 targets. 1U.
