Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It is Week 11 of the NFL season, and the playoff picture is beginning to crystalize. We can clearly delineate playoff team’s vs teams trying to play spoiler. There are a few key games that stand out to me for Sunday: Jets vs Patriots, Browns vs Bills, and Cowboys vs Vikings. Luckily for us, betting player props is absolved from playoff implications. Many players have incentive ridden deals that ensure they’re still giving maximum effort for yards, catches, and touchdowns. Let’s look at our Sunday slate!
Check out all of our NFL Week 11 analysis here.
Nico Collins over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
A mid-season groin injury slightly derailed Nico Collins hottest start to his young career, but he returned in Week 10 to 10 targets and 5 receptions for 49 yards. The Commanders are coming off a huge upset Monday night and you can make the case that short week + come down could impact their play this Sunday vs Houston. Washington ranks 31st overall in DVOA against WR2s (63.9 YPG) so this is a great matchup for Collins. He’s averaging 15.4 yards per reception and aDOT of 13.1, which will help immensely as the Commanders rank 26th overall in DVOA on Deep passes, but more importantly, they rank 30th in passes to the Deep Left. Collins has lined up as the LWR in every game except one. This could be a breakout game for Collins and is an alt-line candidate. I would comfortably play an alt-line up to 60+. 1.5U from me.
Michael Carter over 11.5 receiving yards (-120)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tough to find an over in this game, but the line of 13.5 is far too low for what should be one of Wilson’s top targets Sunday. New England is allowing 36.7 yards per game to opposing RBs and Carter has hit this line in all 3 career games vs the Patriots. Garrett Wilson could be in for a long day as the Pats are ranked 4th overall in DVOA against WR1s so I expect Zach Wilson to dump off to his RB quite often. Carter has his second highest targets (7) of the season against New England back in Week 8 and his snap share is still well above 50% with James Robinson on board. The number being this low is what really attracts me. I’ll play it for 0.5U.
Davis Mills longest completion over 36.5 (-110)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m double dipping on this Texans/Commanders game, but I see an angle I really love. Mills has hit this in 6/9 games this season and gets a great matchup. Many of the reasons I love this were mentioned above with Nico Collins so I won’t bore you, but Washington ranks 26th overall in DVOA for deep passes, with a large disparity to the left side of the field (30th overall in DVOA vs Deep Passes Left). This pass will likely go to Nico Collins, but in case it doesn’t, we go the general route just playing Mills longest reception over 36.5 for 1U.
DJ Moore under 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s tough fading DJ Moore in Baltimore as he is a Terp, but Baker Mayfield starting has a huge impact on his production. With Baker as the starter through Week 5, Moore averaged below 4 catches per game for 38 yards. The Ravens defense ranks 5th in DVOA against WR1s and Marlon Humphrey has a target rate of 11% (top 15 in the league). 1U from me on Moore going under and you can safely play this to 51.5.
Darnell Mooney over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Betting wide receivers against the Falcons is fun and profitable. I made the mistake of listening to coach speak and falling for Chase Claypool breaking out, but I won’t do that two weeks in a row. Mooney has been extremely consistent these last 7 games. He’s had over 43 receiving yards in 7 straight. Slot receivers vs the Falcons have been extremely productive this season Jarvis Landry (114), Cooper Kupp(108), Chris Godwin (61), Tyler Boyd(155). This is a 1U play for me and can be played up to 47.5. Monitor his alt lines for 60+.
Hayden Hurst longest reception under 17.5 yards (-120)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Hurst gets a tough matchup this Sunday in the Pittsburgh Steelers who rank 4th overall in DVOA vs TEs. He’s seeing the volume of targets in Chase’s absence, but his aDOT is a mere 6.5 yards over the last 2 games. This line in particular is exceptionally high for how good Pittsburgh is at defending tight ends, Hurst has only achieved an 18-yard reception in 4/9 games. Hurst’s YAC/Rec was never impressive to begin with (3.2) and the Steelers rank 8th overall in Tackling according to PFF. It will be difficult for him to get free and 30 of his 38 catches have all been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. 1.5U from me.
Van Jefferson over 3.5 Receptions (+136)
Line available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Rams offense is in disarray. Kupp is done for the next few weeks, the O-Line is a carousel, and as a result, the running game is non-existent. However, Matt Stafford returns after a one-week absence to face a Saints defense on the road. Jefferson missed the first 7 weeks of the season and his return has been quiet. He’s had 5 targets in Week 9 and went 3 targets 3 receptions last week with John Wolford at QB. In Kupp’s absence, many are expecting Robinson to take his place, but he’s just not that type of wide receiver to do the things that Kupp did in the slot and getting open in space. Robinson is more a contested catch type of wide receiver than space creator. Van Jefferson is more likely to fill Kupps void in my opinion. Tyler Higbee has been a staple of this Rams offense for the last few years and had a solid game last week against an Arizona Cardinals team that struggles with TEs (31st in DVOA). Well New Orleans is the polar opposite. They rank first in DVOA against TEs, so I’m expecting him to struggle. Give me Van Jefferson to see a team high in targets today and probably have his best game of the season. 1U
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