Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The NFL Week 10 slate is highlighted by 3 main games: Browns vs Dolphins, Vikings vs Bills and Broncos vs Titans. We are now halfway through the season and teams are starting to separate themselves into bottom tier, playoff hopefuls, and legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Luckily, we are betting player props and these designations are meaningless to us. Be sure to check back in over the weekend as I will be adding more plays as they become available.
Julio Jones, WR, TB Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s been a struggle for Julio Jones all season, but he finally appears to be getting healthy. He’s coming of a 5 target 2 reception performance against the stingy LA Rams defense. The game was ugly and never materialized into anything significant offensively outside of the last drive. Julio was relegated to only 36% of the snaps as a result. In Week 1 and Week 8, Julio averaged 54% of the snaps, which is where I see him Sunday morning in Germany. Jones has seen 4+ targets in the 3 healthy games he’s played this year and aDOT of 15.3. Realistically, he should hit this in 2 catches. Mike Evans has been limited all week in practice with injuries to his ankle and ribs and Cameron Brate will be a game time decision. Jones was a full participant in practice on Thursday or Friday, which really speaks to him finally getting healthy. He’s a darkhorse to score and an alt line candidate when they drop. 1U
Check out our full Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Broncos are coming out of a bye week and despite trade rumors, Jerry Jeudy has been coming on of late. He’s hit this line in 5 straight games and get’s another matchup that works in his favor. Titans Safety Joshua Kalu slides into that Nickel CB role where he has been less than stellar, grading out at 44.7 according to PFF. Russell Wilson has shown signs of improvement and coming off one of his better performances as Bronco. Jeudy has logged a reception of 25 yards or longer in 5 straight games and 6/8 on the year, meaning this line could be met in only 3 catches. This is a 2U play for me because of the matchup and Jeudy is an alt line candidate for me (up to 90+).
We’ll have NFL picks for every game this season!
Chase Claypool, WR, CHI Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
In his first game as a Chicago Bear, Claypool played 35% of the snaps and still saw 6 targets. He finished with 2 receptions for 13 yards, but I liked what I saw. He drew a 28 yard pass interference penalty and should have had another in the game. Aside from Cole Kmet, Justin Fields does not have a big bodied WR with the catch radius that Claypool has. This will help him as plays breakdown and he needs to throw on the run. Matt Eberflus is on record this week stating that they are expanding the offensive package for Claypool and getting him the ball in different spots. Last week, they tried to get him the ball with a screen and also pushed the ball downfield. The Lions are allowing an NFL worst 7.8 yards per attempt, so this could be a breakout game for Claypool. With the team total set at 48.5, we should see several trips up and down the field today. 1U
Kareem Hunt, RB, CLE over 7.5 rush attempts (-137)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hunt survived another trade deadline and is still a member of the Dawg Pound. Nick Chubb is still the bell cow and fantasy stud, but Hunt has been consistently getting 10+ carries this season except for the two weeks leading up to the trade deadline. The Browns GM Andrew Berry told reporters that he is expecting Hunt to have a strong second half of the season. It’s reasonable to expect that the Browns may be looking to go with more of a duo approach instead of running Chubb into the ground now that Hunt will finish the year on the team.
From a game approach, Cleveland does not want to get into a track meet with Miami and should manage the clock as much as possible. Two fresh backs will keep the defensive rested long enough to keep up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This is heavily juiced, but a 1U play for me.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins predictions
Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC Over 2.5 Passing TD (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mahomes has hit this in 4/8 games this season and 3 of the last 5. The new wide receiving core has finally settled in, and they get a Jaguars defense that ranks 26th overall in coverage according to PFF. To add another feather in the matchup cap, the Jags rank dead last in tackling according to PFF, which really speaks to Travis Kelce having a big game. Kelce ranks #1 in the league amongst tight ends with 11 broken tackles and #1 in the league in yards after contact. He will be someone to target for 1 and 2 TD’s this week. I love that we get this line at nearly even money. 1U from me.
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL over 1.5 passing TDs (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Dak is back. Literally and figuratively. He’s only played 3 games this season, but he hasn’t had a real chance to get in rhythm from week to week. Prescott returned in Week 7 passing for 1 TD and followed that up with a 2-TD performance against Chicago last week. In 3 career games against the Packers, Prescott has thrown 2+ TDs in every game. The Packers have allowed this line in 3 straight weeks and are now missing their best pass rusher in Rashan Gary. 1U from me.
Check out our Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers predictions
Mack Hollins, WR, LV over 3.5 receptions (+100)
Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This one is fairly simple: Hollins is the clear-cut WR2 on this offense that just lost its starting tight end and slot receiver to the IR. Hollins has been on the field 85+% of snaps every single game this season and we should expect to see an increased target share going forward. He’s already sitting at 15.9% target share and running 35 routes per game. While I expect the routes totals to remain the same, the target share should increase in Waller/Renfrow’s absence. The Indianapolis defense will have its hands full containing Davante Adams and Hollins should draw CB Kenny Moore. Moore is allowing a reception on 73% of targets and a Passer Rating of 120.7. Hollins will be a target for me on his alt receiving line and a TD scorer this Sunday. 1U from me.
Check out our Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
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