JutPicks
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Week 1 has arrived! Two games have already been played, but we still have a full slate on Sunday. Let’s dive into our top Week 1 player prop bet picks, while you can also find out our experts’ NFL picks for EVERY game in Week 1.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s receiving line has been crushed since it opened earlier in the week. Once at 51.5 yards, FanDuel has this line set at 65.5 – we’ll gladly take our chances on the over at 59.5 at BetMGM.
Marvin Harrison Jr. walks into a unique spot as a rookie. He is undoubtedly the #1 receiver for Arizona and can instantly make an impact. I expect that to start in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come into play as 6.5-point favorites with a team total of 27.5. Sportsbooks expect the Cardinals to be behind early, resulting in Kyler Murray slinging the ball across the field — hopefully to Harrison Jr.
Murray’s pass attempts line is set at 33.5, while Harrison Jr’s reception line is set at 6.5. Harrison has all the skillsets to smash this line in a pass-heavy game script against a weak secondary.
Diontae Johnson (CAR) Over 4.5 receptions (-115)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The only person happier that Diontae Johnson is a Carolina Panther other than Johnson is Quarterback Bryce Young. Young had a disastrous rookie season where the Panthers ranked last in yards per game while scoring fewer than 14 points per game — last in the NFL. Along with Johnson joining the receiver room, the Panthers welcome a new offensive coordinator in Brad Idzik and head coach Dave Canales – both coming from Tampa Bay.
We’re finding a great price on Bet365 for Johnson to reel in 5 catches at -115. Sharper books like FanDuel and DraftKings have this priced at -130 and -138. BetMGM is next best at -120 — a price I’m also willing to play.
Johnson and the Panthers will have their hands full with the New Orleans Saints secondary, but Johnson should have no problem leading the receiving room in targets. Adam Thielen’s reception line is set at 4.5, as well, but at plus money. Like Harrison Jr. and the Cardinals, the hope is that the Panthers turn to a pass-heavy approach and get Johnson involved early.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) Under 34.5 rushing yards (-132)
Line available at ESPNBET Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Welcome back to Dallas, Ezekiel Elliott — more games for bettors to fade Zeke – that starts in Week 1 against the stingy Cleveland Browns defense. Elliott returns to Dallas after a year in New England, where he averaged a career-low in yards per carry at 3.5. Elliott is presumed to be in a running back by committee in Dallas, where Rico Dowdle is undoubtedly the more skilled and explosive back and has a higher rushing line total than Elliott on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Browns front 7 is loaded with talent across the board, with books laying an implied total of just 19.5 for the Cowboys — the 4th fewest behind the Patriots, Broncos, and Raiders. This game reads more of Dak Prescott throwing the ball a ton, as his passing attempts line is set at 35.5.
