Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
NFL Week 1 Sunday is here! The best part about betting NFL player props are the earlier weeks, where the books are making assumptions on new players/coaches/situations the same way we are. Over the course of the season, we will see player prop lines become much sharper, but early on there is the chance to really capitalize. With that said, please do not over commit yourself to Week 1 bets. This is still a long season and we want to approach it incrementally.
Make sure to check out our NFL Week 1 predictions too.
Now you can bet any of our NFL prop predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you can bet $5 and receive $200 in bonus bets plus $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket! Click here to join FanDuel right now and learn more.
Calvin Ridley (JAX) over 57.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Many are high on Calvin Ridley heading into the season, and for good reason: he’s slotting into a WR1 role on a playoff team with an ascending QB. Also, he’s not coming off any type of injury, so his situation is very unique. This line is likely the lowest we will see all season for Ridley, but let’s take advantage while we can. We do not have any benchmark for Ridley in Jacksonville, but let’s diagnose what we DO know. He averaged 13.5 y/r for his career and hit this line in 21/35 career starts (60%). I have Ridley pegged at 9 targets against this Sunday, and that’s where it gets interesting. When Ridley he’s 9+ targets for this career, he averages 94.7 YPG and clears this line in 16/19 games (84%). The Colts front 7 is average to above average on paper, but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. Let’s start off the season with a 2U play.
You can bet these player props over at Caesars Sportsbook, which has an epic sign-up offer where you can bet $50 and secure $250 in bonus bets. Click this link to join Caesars and also benefit from odds boosts every day.
Kenny Pickett (PIT) under 212.5 passing yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The hype train has left the station on Pickett this offseason and combined with an elite level PRESEASON performance, who wouldn’t be all in the quarterback who averaged 6.2 yards per attempt last season? That number was good for 33rd overall in the NFL amongst qualified QB’s. I am fading Pickett Week 1 in against a top-3 defense in the league, San Francisco 49ers. The crimson and gold were ranked top 10 in the NFL in Opp YPA (6.3), and their defense will be swarming out of the gate. Even if reigning DPOY Nick Bosa is missing, the San Francisco front 7 is arguably the best in the league. Forcing Pickett into 3rd and long situation will be crucial, as Pickett had a 30% completion percentage on 3rd and 5 or longer.
The preseason success was just that: preseason success. Head coaches are playing vanilla defenses and back-up players even with the first unit, so I’m not buying into the hype. This line opened at 201.5 and has since been bet up to 212.5 where I land on my under. The 49ers ranked 4th overall in time of possession last season, and I expect that to continue as Purdy will dink and dunk his way down field. Sorry to Steeler Nation, but I’m backing the under for 1U.
BetMGM is the king of online sportsbooks, and right now they have a great new customer promotion where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if you don’t win! Click this link to join BetMGM.
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Longest Rush over 15.5 Yards (-110)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
To be blunt, Walker cleared this line in both games vs the Los Angeles Rams in 2022 and 9/17 on the season. He’s fending off rookie Zach Charbonnett, but that transition won’t happen until later in the season. Seattle is prone to drafting RB’s early these last few years, so his presence is not an indictment on Walker. This Rams defensive line is starting a rookie Week 1 at DT and has seen both starting DT’s from 2022 departed in free agency (Greg Gaines and A’Shawn Robinson). I fully expect this Rams defense to struggle this season and could be bottom 5 in the league when all is said and done. This Week 1 divisional matchup has the potential to be a blowout and in that case, Walker should see upwards of 16+ carries. When he does see that high of a workload, Walker hit’s this line in 6 out of 7 games. 0.5U
Nick Chubb (CLE) over 73.5 rushing yards (-120)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
If I get burned on this, so be it. This line opened at 89.5 and has been bet down all the way to 73.5 and that’s where I draw the line. Chubb averages 5 YPC for his career and has hit this in 6/9 vs Cincinnati. One would think the addition of Deshaun Watson would make the Brown’s offense more pass happy, but Chubb still cleared this in the 5/6 games that Watson started. In the small sample size of Watson as the starter, Chubb averaged 17 attempts and 4.9 ypc; we can still project him safely over the 80+ mark. This season, Cleveland has abandoned Kareem Hunt as the RB2 and will sprinkle in Elijah Moore in a Deebo Samuel role, but this backfield belongs to Chubb. I project him at 17 carries 83 yards this Sunday. 1U
