NFL Picks

The New York Jets meet the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday morning in London, and for my Jets vs Vikings best bet I’m siding with the Gang Green to bounce back from last week’s disappointing defeat against the Broncos. New York was favored for this matchup in the lookahead line and likely would have been the favorite if Greg Zuerlein had scored the 50-yard field goal in the final minute to put the Jets ahead. That shouldn’t have much of an impact here, so I like the Jets’ chances of getting the win.

There were no doubt some issues with New York’s offense on Sunday, but the torrential rain was clearly a problem and shouldn’t be such a factor in this matchup. Before that game, Aaron Rodgers had looked to be building a strong rapport with his receivers while the backfield of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen has been building into one of the toughest tandems in the league. While the Vikings defense has held firm for the most part, they did show signs of fragility when they almost blew a 21-point lead in the 4th quarter against the Packers. They have allowed the most passing yards in the league this season and could be vulnerable to the threat of Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams.

As for Minnesota’s offense, you have to start with the huge revenge factor for Sam Darnold. The former Jet is finally living up to the potential that made him a first-round draft pick in 2018 and will no doubt have had this game circled in his calendar for a while. However, he will be facing a Jets defense that ranks 2nd in passing yards allowed and yards per attempt, while also allowing just 2 passing touchdowns in 4 games this season. There is no doubt that this Vikings team has been a feel-good story this year, but it seems like it’s only a matter of time before they are brought back down to Earth. With questions surrounding their defense while New York boasts one of the best in the league, I expect the Jets to be able to outscore the Vikes in this one. I’m going with the Jets and taking the points for insurance, as well.

Jets vs Vikings prediction: Jets +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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For my second Jets vs Vikings prediction, I really like the Over in this spot. While this can be seen as “another London game,” it’s important to note that these matchups have taken place at different stadiums over the years. This matchup emanates from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and all 8 games that have taken place there have seen at least 40 points scored. As was the case in the Eagles vs Packers game in Brazil, matchups in soccer stadiums can sometimes result in shootouts; that could be the case here.

But even without taking that into consideration, this number still feels too low. For starters, the Vikings have allowed the most passing yards in the league and now welcome Aaron Rodgers, who will no doubt be motivated to bounce back following a poor offensive showing against the Broncos. Rodgers and the Jets proved against the Patriots in Week 3 that this can be a dangerous offense when they’re on song, and should be able to move the chains against Minnesota. As for the Vikings, they have the most passing touchdowns in the NFL and boast the 2nd-highest passing yards per attempt. Both teams have the potential to eclipse 20 points, so I’m siding with the Over.

Jets vs Vikings prediction: Over 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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It will be an AFC North showdown when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL campaign. Although the Baltimore Ravens are a modest 2-2 through 4 weeks, more than a few folks out there are wondering if this is the best team in football. They certainly looked like it on Monday Night Football this past week, blasting the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills 35-10. Baltimore is currently the 3rd-favorite to win the Super Bowl and its odds would probably be even better if it had not lost a Week 1 thriller against the Kansas City Chiefs when Isaiah Likely’s toe on a potential game-winning touchdown catch was just barely out of bounds. But following a rough first 2 weeks, Lamar Jackson and company have looked great. Jackson (7 total touchdowns, 1 interception) is the reigning NFL MVP and is currently the 3rd-favorite to win it again.

I just don’t think this version of the Bengals can quite keep up with Jackson, Derrick Henry and the rest of the Ravens’ flock. Cincinnati should be better that its record, but 1-3 is 1-3. This team is finding a way to lose football games — and when you are getting only 2.5 points, losing games you have a chance to win can also be costly against the spread. Joe Burrow is playing well, but with Joe Mixon gone the Bengals have not had much of a rushing attack so far in 2024. Baltimore already boasts by far the best rushing defense in the entire NFL, so you can pretty much guarantee that Cincy’s offense is going to be 1-dimensional on Sunday.

Ravens vs Bengals prediction: Ravens -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is currently the highest number of the entire Week 5 slate, and — unfortunately for those trying to find a betting edge — this line is right on the money. That being said, it may be just low enough for the Over to cash. Even if Cincinnati can’t run the ball, its passing game is good enough to put up some points. Burrow has 7 touchdowns compared to only 1 interception; Ja’Marr Chase has already racked up 300 yards and 3 scores. They now face a Baltimore passing defense that is 29th in the league.

On the other side of the ball, Bengals defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins, Trey Hendrickson and B.J. Hill are all questionable. Even if those guys play, slowing down Jackson and Henry is one of the toughest tasks in football. Baltimore won at Cincinnati 27-24 last season (before Burrow got injured and missed the rest of the year) and that is the exact score at which I have this game projected. It’s a slight lean toward the over.

Ravens vs Bengals prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Two high-powered offenses meet in Houston for a highly-anticipated matchup in Week 5. Plus, it’s a Stefon Diggs revenge game. There’s a lot to digest in this game, so let’s break down the basics first starting with the Texans. Houston improved to 3-1 with their 4-point win over the Jaguars in Week 4 and all of their success came from the arm of CJ Stroud. The face of the franchise threw for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns and his connection with Nico Collins looked unbreakable. He found Collins 12 times for 151 yards and a touchdown and he’s become the clear WR1 in a very busy wide receiver room. However, there was a lot left to be desired on the ground. Joe Mixon has missed the last 2 games due to an ankle injury and missed practice again on Wednesday which isn’t a good sign. Without him, the Texans have had to rely on Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale — but neither has been able to produce the way that Mixon had. I’m worried the Texans are becoming a 1-dimensional team without Mixon.

The Bills put their 3-0 record on the line against the Ravens last week and not only suffered their first defeat, but also got embarrassed on national television. Buffalo lost 35-10 as King Henry and Lamar Jackson were running all over the Bills defense. It was a harsh reality check for the Bills, who had had a fairly easy first few weeks of the season, and this matchup will tell us a lot about Buffalo’s identity. However, I’m willing to keep the faith in the Bills since the Texans could be without Mixon once again. Buffalo’s biggest weakness on defense has been against the run (just look at last week), so it could have a much easier time on defense going from Derrick Henry in Week 4 to Cam Akers in Week 5. I’m sticking with the Bills at a very respectable money line price.

Bills vs Texans prediction: Bills ML (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable t0 -120.

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This total has already jumped a point from when it opened. A short burst of money on the over when the line opened steamed the total up to 47.5 where it sits now. I expect for the total to continue to rise as the week goes on — especially if Mixon returns. But assuming he doesn’t, the Texans are a great team for the over. The offense revolves around Stroud and he has a plethora of targets to choose from. His favorite has become Nico Collins, but he also has Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. That mix of explosive options down the field (Collins) and reliable targets for short gains (Diggs) gives Stroud plenty of options in the pocket. And although Collins has been the clear top choice so far, I’m expecting Diggs to play a larger role in this one since it’s a revenge spot for him. 

Buffalo’s offense has worked well even without a clear-cut WR1. It’s been a mix of Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid so far for Allen. But the majority of Buffalo’s offensive production has been on the ground from Allen and James Cook. That should continue on Sunday afternoon since the Texans give up 4.7 yards per rushing attempt, which is the 8th most in the league. But expect Allen to take some deep shots to Coleman and Shakir to keep the Houston secondary on its toes. The offenses should break through and I wouldn’t be surprised to see each team with 24+ points.

Bills vs Texans prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It isn’t a week betting on the NFL if we don’t include at least one kicker prop. Bass to make 2+ field goals is a sneaky find in my opinion. Bass has had at least 2 field-goal attempts in all 4 games this year. I think Bass is a good kicker and he got his misses out of the way early this year. This game against Houston is in a dome which certainly helps. Houston has allowed opposing kickers to score at least 2 field goals against them in their last 3 games. This game should feature plenty of points and I trust Josh Allen to get them down the field and into kicking range, while the Texans defense is rigid enough to keep Allen and company out of the end zone. Lets stay hot with the kicking props!

It almost goes without saying at this point, but the leap from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton at quarterback for the Panthers has done wonders to their offense. Head coach Dave Canales was immediately proven right in making that move, as Carolina thrashed the Las Vegas Raiders 2 weeks ago and followed that up with a competitive loss to the Bengals in which the Panthers scored 24 points and racked up nearly 400 yards of offense. Obviously, this Bears defense represents a massive step up from what they’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, but I still trust in Dalton and company to keep this one close. The Panthers’ injuries on defense are a major concern, but they have a pretty favorable matchup this week against offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and a Bears offense that has been stuck in the mud all season long.

I faded Caleb Williams as a favorite of more than a field goal back in Week 1 and would’ve been rewarded had it not been for multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns for Chicago, plus Will Levis turning the ball over on numerous occasions in the second half of that game. This week, I’m happy to go back to the well while trusting a veteran quarterback to avoid those same boneheaded, costly mistakes. The Bears’ defense has needed to be special because this offense is simply not producing, despite playing some pretty poor defenses (hello, Indianapolis and Los Angeles) to this point. Williams is slowly building confidence in a new system, but I’m still not sold on this Bears running game and the rookie quarterback is just 3-of-22 on passes of 20+ air yards this season. Backing the Panthers is a tough pill to swallow but let’s go with Carolina +4 in this one.

Panthers vs Bears prediction: Panthers +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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While the Panthers’ offense is certainly much improved with Andy Dalton under center, this Bears defense has been playing lights-out football over the first month of the season. I’d expect that to continue at home on Sunday, and that doesn’t even factor in the weather conditions for this game, which should make things difficult to push the ball downfield. Winds are expected to be 15 miles per hour, and it might feel even windier down at field level at Soldier Field. As I touched on in my point spread writeup, the Bears’ offense is having real issues establishing any sort of consistency as Williams continues to learn the position at the professional level. These conditions certainly won’t make things any easier for an already sputtering offense, so I have to take Under 42.5 while it’s still over the key number of 41.

Panthers vs Bears prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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The Washington Commanders will be looking to continue their scorching-hot start to the 2024 NFL season when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. Nobody was forecasting this before the year started, but Washington is an absolute wagon — at least on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Jayden Daniels, the #2 overall pick, is setting the league on fire in the early stages of his rookie campaign, evoking memories of Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud in 2023. Daniels (897 passing yards, 218 rushing yards, 7 total touchdowns) has his team at 3-1 and riding a 3-game winning streak. The Commanders have scored 38 and 42 points in their last 2 outings.

At the other end of the spectrum is Cleveland signal-caller Deshaun Watson, who appears to be washed up and the recipient of what is arguably the worst contract in all of sports. The Browns are 1-3 and on the fast track to nowhere. Nick Chubb is close to returning, but he isn’t going to play this weekend and an addition to the roster at running back isn’t the answer for this franchise in the first place. Given that Watson can no longer make something out of nothing at this point in his career, he needs help from his pass-catchers. And he isn’t getting it. Nobody on the team has reached the 200-yard receiving mark through 4 games. Anything other than a comfortable win for Washington would be a surprise.

Browns vs Commanders prediction: Commanders -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

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Something’s gotta give on Sunday, because Washington is a walking Over bet whereas Cleveland generally plays to the under. When it’s all said and done, I simply can’t back an Over with a total in the mid-40s when the Browns are involved. Watson is a shadow of his former self, Chubb is missing and those are just 2 of many reasons why their offense is inept. They have scored 15, 16, 17 and 18 points in their 4 games so far, and those were all against middling defenses. So, yeah, even against a mediocre Commanders defense you pretty much know what you are going to get from Cleveland.

Fortunately for head coach Kevin Stefanski’s squad, its defense is respectable. That’s the only reason why the visitors have a chance to be even remotely competitive on Sunday. They are allowing the 8th-fewest yards per pass attempt and are in the top half of the NFL in sacks (Myles Garrett has 4 of their 11). As good as Daniels is, he is still a rookie and some regression could be coming. I’m leaning toward the Under in this one.

Browns vs Commanders prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s gone from bad to worse in Jacksonville. A poor start has turned into a nightmare one for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, who are the only team left without a win. To their credit, 3 of their 4 losses have been by 5 points or less. However, the other setback was by 37 points. The majority of Jacksonville’s problems have been on offense, with the main one being Lawrence. He endured a rough second half of last season and it has continued into this season considering he owns just a 53.3% completion rate, has been sacked 12 times, only thrown 4 touchdowns and has a QBR of just 44.4. Lawrence looked slightly better last week against the Texans since he didn’t have a turnover, but his accuracy has been a topic of discussion. The only good news for him is that the Colts don’t have a strong secondary, so he has a chance to right to ship in Week 5 as the favorite.

Anthony Richardson suffered a hip injury in Week 4 that caused him to leave the game early and give the young-and-spry Joe Flacco an opportunity. Flacco went on to throw for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns after taking over and led the Colts to a 27-24 win over the Steelers. However, Richardson’s injury might not be as severe as originally thought since he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. The thing is, I like the Colts regardless of if it’s Richardson or Flacco. Both quarterbacks will attack the Jacksonville secondary which has allowed the 2nd most passing yards per game. The Jaguars have been much better against the run so far, but they have yet to face an elite back like Jonathan Taylor. Between Taylor on the ground and a weak Jaguars secondary, there is a lot of value on the Colts to keep the Jaguars winless.

Colts vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars +3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Neither team has a strong defense, which would usually draw me toward the over — but these offenses have pointed me toward the under. Lawrence has struggled in the pocket and is rushing all of his throws. He doesn’t appear to be letting the plate develop and find the right target, which has caused a lot of incompletions and turnovers. Admittedly, the Colts’ secondary isn’t great. But the Jaguars don’t have a strong receiving group and they will likely try to get Travis Etienne Jr. going. The entire Jags offense has looked stuck in the mud through the first few weeks. Until they break out, I’ll keep fading them.

The big question surrounding the Colts this week is if Richardson is healthy enough to go. To be honest, I think this game has a better chance to go under the total if he does. That’s because Flacco is a great passer and takes plenty of deep shots downfield. With Richardson, he hasn’t shown a great amount of accuracy or chemistry with his receivers yet. That’s forced them to heavily rely on the legs of Jonathan Taylor. If the Colts continue to run the ball with Taylor and have some long drives that end with 3 points or nothing, this game has a great chance of staying below the total.

Colts vs Jaguars prediction: Under 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s not exactly a marquee matchup in Week 5 as the New England Patriots get ready to host the Miami Dolphins, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value. Tyler Huntley is slated to start his second straight game for the Dolphins, and to say his first one didn’t go too well would be a dramatic understatement. Huntley was abysmal on Monday Night Football, when the Dolphins got blown out at home by a previously 0-3 Titans team that was also forced to play a backup quarterback in Mason Rudolph.

Now the Dolphins are on a short week going on the road into a hostile environment with a QB who still can’t possibly have fully digested head coach Mike McDaniel’s complicated offensive system. The Patriots haven’t looked great the last couple of weeks, but they have been on the road against very tough 49ers and Jets defenses. New England has only played one home game, back in Week 2, and they showed pretty well. The Pats took a very solid Seattle team to overtime in that one, losing on a field goal. And in Week 1 they pulled off a big upset on the road against the Bengals. Jacoby Brissett has a very limited ceiling, but he is at least a competent veteran signal-caller and provides stability at the position — which is the exact opposite of what Huntley brings to the table.

The Dolphins’ only win of the season was a very narrow one back in Week 1 at home against a Jaguars team that is now 0-4. And they only beat Jacksonville because Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line late in the game. Even when Tua Tagovailoa was under center the team was still fledgling, and without him it has completely fallen apart. I’m rolling with the Pats.

Dolphins vs Patriots prediction: Patriots -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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This game should be played at a snail’s pace, and this one feels like a race to 17 points. The Dolphins have now failed to score more than 12 points in 3 straight games, and it doesn’t matter that they have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle if they don’t have a quarterback who can get them the ball. New England is just as anemic offensively, as the Pats have mustered just 16 total points over the last 2 weeks. Jacoby Brissett can’t push the ball downfield, and even if he could, he wouldn’t be able to behind the team’s porous offensive line.

Neither team can block and neither team has scored more than 20 points in a game this season, which is pretty remarkable since they’ve played a combined 8 contests now. Miami did give up 31 points last week to Tennessee, but that number was very misleading. The Titans only put up 244 yards of total offense in that game. Meanwhile, New England’s defense is being gifted with a massive step down in competition. So far this season the quarterbacks the Pats have faced are Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy. Now they are getting Tyler Huntley on a short week. Give me the under.

Dolphins vs Patriots prediction: Under 36.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers will face off in an NFC West rivalry this Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. The Cards enter this one after a disappointing 42-14 home defeat to the Washington Commanders. This defeat marked their second straight home loss, as they failed to score over 14 points for the second straight game. Arizona’s passing game has been unreliable through 4 games, but they’re still recording 153.3 rushing yards per contest (5th in the NFL). It seems like QB Kyler Murray is looking for rookie star WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and if he isn’t open, he has no other options. While Harrison has scored 4 TDs in the last 3 games, Murray must look for alternatives because teams will continue to double-up on MHJ.

The 49ers play at home for the second straight week after they picked up a 30-13 victory over the New England Patriots. Although it was a great win, it was against the lowly Patriots, and I’m not going to say San Francisco has turned things around after they suffered road defeats to the Vikings and Rams in Week 2 and Week 3. The biggest issue for San Francisco is their health because star LB Fred Warner exited the game with an ankle injury in the first half while starting DT Jordan Elliott suffered the same fate. There is no way this defense will be 100% on Sunday, even though head coach Kyle Shanahan said both players are day-to-day entering this week’s practice.

The 49ers have recently dominated this matchup when playing at home, but this line seems high for a divisional rivalry. Additionally, the line opened at +9.5 before moving down to +7.5, and I don’t believe the public is rushing to back a Cardinals team that has scored just 27 points over the last 2 weeks. I said that I was buying low on Arizona in my Commanders vs Cardinals prediction in Week 4, and I’m taking that to another level. Let’s back the Cards again because Kyler Murray is 26-15-2 (62.8%) ATS as an underdog in his career compared to 10-16-0 (38.5%) as a favorite.

Cardinals vs 49ers prediction: Cardinals +7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +7.

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The second half of my Cardinals vs 49ers predictions will focus on the total, and I expect a high-scoring affair in San Francisco. I discussed the Cardinals’ struggles on offense over the last 2 weeks, but their defense has been atrocious, and I’m not sure how they’ll stop a 49ers offense that averages 413.3 yards per game (2nd in the NFL) because the Rams are giving up 26.5 ppg (29th in the NFL). San Francisco is only scoring a touchdown in 50% of their red-zone drives (T20th in the NFL), but they shouldn’t run into this issue on Sunday because Arizona is allowing opponents to score a TD 68.8% of the time (25th in the NFL).

Although things are bleak for Arizona’s defense, I expect Kyler Murray to get this offense humming again. TE Trey McBride should return in Week 4 after missing Week 3 because of a concussion, and McBride had his first true breakout game last season against San Francisco. He recorded 10 catches on 11 targets for 102 yards, and if Fred Warner is not 100% this Sunday, he should be in for another big game. Additionally, San Francisco hasn’t had to deal with a mobile QB this season, as they’ve faced Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Matt Stafford and Jacoby Brissett, and a banged-up linebacking group and secondary (S Talanoa Hufanga is questionable) could be fatal for the Niners. 

The Over has cashed in 6 of the 2 teams’ combined 8 games this season and in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these squads in San Francisco. Finally, the weather forecast looks like it will be 90+ degrees at kickoff, which should negatively impact the defense, especially in the second half. I’m backing the Over as the second of my Cardinals vs 49ers best bets.

Cardinals vs 49ers prediction: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 50.

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AFC West action here in Week 5 as the Las Vegas Raiders get ready to square off with the Denver Broncos. Both teams are coming off wins where they hardly looked inspiring. Las Vegas narrowly beat a fledgling Browns team after Cleveland shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, while Denver won an ugly squeaker against the Jets in a game where they only scored 10 points. While I’m not high on either team, I like the Broncos in this spot since Vance Joseph’s defense is the only unit involved in this game that has been playing genuinely well. Just last week, they held Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to just 248 yards of total offense. Denver is one of the toughest environments to play in across the entire league, and the Raiders are entering this one severely banged up.

There were 16 Las Vegas players on Thursday’s injury report, and star defensive end Maxx Crosby missed practice again on Thursday with his ankle injury. Davante Adams is in the middle of a very public trade request saga with the team and also has a hamstring injury that has him sidelined. Last week against the Browns, Gardner Minshew threw for just 130 yards and Zamir White had 59 rushing yards on 17 carries. They didn’t play well at all, and let’s not forget that they got blown out at home by the lowly Panthers in their previous game. They got absolutely shredded by Andy Dalton in that one for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. It was the first 300-yard and 3-touchdown performance for any quarterback in the league this season. That’s how abysmal the Raiders were. Expect the Broncos to come out on top in this one.

Raiders vs Broncos prediction: Broncos -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I also like the under here given the current state of this Broncos team. Denver has pretty much accepted that Bo Nix isn’t going to do much through the air, and they’re going to attempt to win each game in increasingly ugly fashion. Vance Joseph’s defense is making that strategy somewhat viable, as the Broncos have given up 13 points or fewer in each of their last 3 games. Last week they held the Jets to only 9, and I expect them to feast against a weak Raiders offense.

It looks like Las Vegas will be without Davante Adams here and running back Zamir White hasn’t been able to get anything going lately. After a promising start, rookie tight end Brock Bowers’ production has shrunk in each of the last couple of games. Neither team has anything positive going for it offensively, as Bo Nix is coming off a game where he threw for 60 yards on 25 attempts. After his first dozen or so passes, he had negative yards. With this being a division game, I’m expecting an ugly slugfest.

Raiders vs Broncos prediction: Under 36 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Tucker has been the biggest beneficiary of all during this Davante Adams drama with the Raiders. Tucker has back-to-back weeks with 6+ targets and he has 41 and 96 yards in those 2 games. Tucker finds himself against Denver who have a bad man in the secondary in Pat Surtain. I’m banking on Surtain covering Jakobi Meyers here as he typically likes to shadow WR1s. WR2s have had a nice run this season against Denver, Lockett, Godwin and Lazard have all done exceptionally well against this Denver secondary. This could be a future star and this could be a price we don’t see again for a while.

The Green Bay Packers travel west for a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, and I fully expect Green Bay to pick up a big win. QB Jordan Love returned last week from an MCL injury suffered in Week 1, and the Packers play-caller completed 32 of his 52 pass attempts for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns to go with 3 interceptions. It was a tale of two halves for the Packers, but Love looked like his normal self in the second half, and I expect much of the same against a Rams defense that allows 385.3 yards (31st in the NFL) and 28.8 points per contest (31st in the NFL). Los Angeles has 4 members of its secondary on IR, and they’re struggling to slow down any offense.

The hosts enter this game with a 1-3 record, and after pulling off a 27-24 upset against the 49ers in Week 3, they fell to the Bears 24-18 in Chicago. They outgained the Bears in that contest, but Matt Stafford fumbled at their own 13-yard line in the first half which led to a Bears touchdown, and threw an interception on the final drive of the game which sealed their fate. The Rams aren’t a bad team, but the number of injuries they’ve suffered this season is too hard to ignore. WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will miss another week, and although Stafford has been able to somewhat produce with the help of RB Kyren Williams, I expect Green Bay to fully take away the Rams’ rushing attack, as they rank 11th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (109.3).

Green Bay will likely be without leading WR Christian Watson, but Love still has plenty of targets to dominate a weak Rams secondary. Additionally, the Packers are 10-0 against the spread in these teams’ last 10 meetings and are 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 games against NFC West opponents. Expect the Packers to bounce back from last week’s disappointing loss to the Vikings, as they should win by more than a field goal in LA.

Packers vs Rams prediction: Green Bay -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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The second half of my Packers vs Rams prediction is for this game to finish with plenty of points. As stated above, the Rams’ secondary is dreadful, and they haven’t held an opponent to fewer than 24 points once this season. The Packers average 26.0 ppg (7th in the NFL), and they haven’t even been a strong scoring team in the red zone. Green Bay is scoring a touchdown on just 46.7% of red zone drives (23rd in the NFL), so if Matt LaFleur’s team can start finishing drives, this offense could rise to be one of the best in the league.

On the other side, the Rams’ offense is still putting up points even after losing their leading 2 wideouts in Nacua and Kupp. Veteran QB Matt Stafford is putting up 244.5 passing yards per game (T-8th in the NFL), and he’s done extremely well given who is at his disposal. I expect the Rams to take a pass-heavy approach due to the Packers’ strong rushing defense, which should lead to more clock stoppages and the potential for explosive plays. On that front, Green Bay’s offense leads the league in explosive plays, and the Rams are last in yards per pass and yards per play allowed. 

While I expect the Packers to contribute the most toward this total, Los Angeles has scored 18+ points in 3 of their 4 games. The total has gone over in 8 of Green Bay’s last 9 games on the road and 9 of the Rams’ last 12 games finished over the total. Expect both trends to continue this Sunday and back the Over as the final one of my Packers vs Rams best bets.

Packers vs Rams prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 48.5.

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Heading into the week, I was originally looking to back the Giants catching nearly a touchdown in what appeared to be a good spot. After all, underdogs of 6+ points this season are an astounding 14-2-1 (88%) against the spread, with many of those teams winning outright through the first 4 weeks. New York is coming off Thursday Night Football while Seattle just played a frenetic game in Detroit against a Lions team that provided a blueprint for how to dissect this Seahawks defense. With that said, I’m actually going the other way in this game, and a lot of it has to do with the Giants’ injury situation on offense.

New York has become extremely dependent on wide receiver Malik Nabers in his rookie season, and it is looking like the LSU product is unlikely to play in Sunday’s game in Seattle after he suffered a concussion against the Cowboys last Thursday night. As of Wednesday evening, Nabers had yet to practice this week and he is still in the early stages of concussion protocol. Neither of those updates bodes well for Nabers’ status on Sunday, and his absence would be a crushing blow to a Giants passing game that has to be successful in order to keep this one within a score. Additionally, running back Devin Singletary suffered a groin injury in a loss to the Cowboys and he might be unavailable for this week’s game as well. This offense could be in a heap of trouble with those players absent, even with Seattle’s rash of injuries on defense.

On the other side, the Seahawks offense is absolutely clicking on all cylinders after a few weeks of Geno Smith and company adapting to new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s system. Seattle should be able to do whatever it wants in the passing game against this poor Giants secondary, so let’s take the Seahawks to cover the 6-point spread on Sunday.

Giants vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -6 available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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It’s not my favorite bet of the week, but a game script that sees Seattle covering the 6-point spread coincides nicely with an Over at the current number. The Seahawks offense looked like one of the best units in the league against a Lions secondary that had real issues in covering the middle of the field all game long. I’d expect Seattle to follow that exact recipe against a Giants secondary that is 20th in passing success rate, 22nd in EPA per pass and 25th in interception percentage (SumerSports). And on the other side, this Giants offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but New York should still been able to generate a couple of quality drives against a Seahawks defense that will be missing at least 3 players on the defensive line in this one. Let’s get to the window with Over 43.5 while we’re still below the key number of 45.

Giants vs Seahawks pick: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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A rare meeting of 2 legendary franchises as the Cowboys and Steelers will clash on Sunday Night Football, although 1 program is certainly faring better than the other. The Dallas Cowboys are not the same team they once were, that was clear even in a win last Thursday night. The Cowboys went into the Meadowlands and did what they usually do: beat the Giants. But a game-ready Big Blue brought it to Dallas, outgaining their rival in yards and first downs, but Daniel Jones and company just couldn’t convert in the red zone. We should give some credit to the Cowboys for getting off their skid but with injuries to 2 defensive stars (DeMarcus Lawrence, IR, and Micah Parsons listed as doubtful) and another wide-receiver out for Week 5 (Brandin Cooks), a 2-2 Dallas squad is limping into this battle. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a regrettable performance last Sunday, their second loss in 2 seasons to an Indianapolis roster that simply matches up very well against Mike Tomlin’s team, especially at Lucas Oil Stadium. We see it as a perceptual throwaway game, 60 minutes riddled with mistakes that Pittsburgh wishes they could have back. Still, the Steelers managed to gain 404 yards, their biggest production through 4 games, and nearly won (the final score was 27-24). Even with 27 points allowed and a near-loss, Pittsburgh is clearly one of the top defenses in the NFL, ranked in the top 5 in nearly every category that matters. And even better for the future of Tomlin’s franchise – Justin Fields finally found his groove in the Steel City.

The Steelers were 5-2 ATS last season after a loss, and this checks out as a “Mike Tomlin game,” a let’s correct our mishaps and dominate spot. Meanwhile, the Cowboys can’t run the ball (ranked last), and a healthy version of their defense ranks 25th in yards allowed per play (5.7). With a spread under 3, we can only look one way.

Cowboys vs Steelers prediction: Steelers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Although we’re not exactly in love with who the Dallas Cowboys are this season, we’d be remiss not to point out a big positive from last Thursday night: their defense. Dallas’ secondary snatched an interception when it mattered most and forced the Giants to kick 5 field goals once they drove into Dallas territory, limiting the result of Big Blue’s production for all 4 quarters. Injuries to guys like Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence won’t help their resistance this week on paper, but as we see so often in these situations, the “next man up” mentality comes into play. Plus, their new defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, has a history of getting the most out of his talent. While Justin Fields and the Steelers’ offense looks better than usual, they’re still scoring just 18.8 ppg (22nd), and Dallas will need to step up defensively because of who their offense will oppose Sunday night.

There are 2 things we really don’t like about Dallas’ offense in this matchup. Firstly, they’re unbalanced, the worst rushing attack in the NFL by a mile, which means an offensive line with considerably less talent than in former years will need to protect Dak Prescott as he attempts to (once again) succeed in a pass-heavy scheme. So far, the results aren’t great: 7.1 yards per pass (20th), 63.82% completion rate (22nd). Secondly, TJ Watt was kept in check last week at Indianapolis. The best edge rusher in the NFL is angry, along with the rest of the Pittsburgh defense, and the muddy conditions of Western Pennsylvania are the perfect environment for a defensive takeover. We project this to finish in the region of 20-16, giving the Under plenty of value.

Cowboys vs Steelers pick: Under 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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No Week 5 game had more immediate and drastic line movement in both the spread and total as this Monday Night Football matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 for now, but one could certainly argue that there’s trouble in paradise. Two weeks after losing Isiah Pacheco, their dynamic running back, their #1 wide receiver, Rashee Rice, now joins his colleague on the bench with a knee injury. Patrick Mahomes was already holding the team on his shoulders too much, but the Chiefs’ offense may finally be in a dangerously vulnerable position, one that’s too hard to overcome. On Monday, they’ll face a defense that’s displayed impressive performances week after week so far this season, which is likely why the spread moved down so assertively after it opened at Kansas City -6.5. 

Don’t get us wrong, we weren’t very high on the Saints coming into this season. The raw talent on their defense is hard to deny, but last year Derek Carr and a struggling offense couldn’t maintain any consistency. That led to very mediocre results and an overall program that we could only deem “average,” but new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is already transforming their identity. No team is scoring more (31.8 ppg), they’re committed to the run game (34.5 rushes per game, 1st), and Carr is clearly comfortable in Kubiak’s new system, earning top-5 marks in yards per pass (8.2) and completion rate (71.29%). That’s a drastic turnaround from the product we saw on the field in 2023. And the reality is, New Orleans could easily be 4-0. They never allowed an offensive TD last week at Atlanta, it was mistakes and mishaps that generated that loss, and they shut down Philly in the first half of Week 3 before Jalen Hurts and the Eagles rallied late. 

Derek Carr played 9 seasons in the AFC West as the Raiders quarterback, so he knows the Chiefs and Arrowhead Stadium very well. Dennis Allen, Klint Kubiak and a pissed off Saints coaching staff must be frustrated after watching their team lose 2 straight weeks where they conceivably had both games in the bag. Kansas City, although at home and equipped with a defense that’s still playing very well, is due for serious regression, especially with their new injury bug. This spread moved quickly for a reason, but there’s still plenty of value on the pooch on the money line.

Saints vs Chiefs prediction: Saints ML (+210) available at time of publishing. Playable to +180.

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Along with the spread, we saw very quick movement on this total from the opener (45.5) to 42.5, initially. Now it sits a point above, but we agree with the adjustments made by oddsmakers. After all, Kansas City might have no choice but to rely on their defense. The banged-up Chiefs get to return home after losing Rashee Rice in Week 4, and they’re starting to run out of receiving options. Travis Kelce, the future Hall-of-Fame tight end, has been kept in check, often double-teamed and limited to just 40 yards per game through 4 weeks, and rookie wideout Xavier Worthy has highlight-reel speed but is he ready to be Mahomes’ #1 option? The answer is very likely no. Kareem Hunt rejoined his former team last week, but we’re not exactly ready to trust the aging running back in a bigger role, either. Of course, when a team has the league’s best quarterback and head coach and play-caller, there’s always a chance, but this is a tough position for a Kansas City squad that’s up against a very formidable defense.

On the other side, Derek Carr and the Saints’ offense won’t be in a prime spot, either. Kansas City is very hard to run on (3.8 yards per carry allowed, 4th), and they have one of the NFL’s best defenses in their own territory, ranking 7th in TDs allowed in the red zone (42.86%) and ppg allowed (18). Carr has also struggled in his career at Arrowhead. In his last 7 starts, all with the Raiders, he hasn’t fared very well: 227 pass yards, 1 INT, 1 TD per game. He’ll have a new play-caller and weapons at his disposal, but Steve Spagnuolo and a game-ready defense won’t make it easy for New Orleans to score points in a nationally televised contest. No matter what side or which way you look at this game, it screams ball control and defense.

Saints vs Chiefs pick: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Lions absolutely should’ve beaten the Dallas on the road last season, but ultimately fell short thanks to some untimely officiating gaffes. This time around, the Lions are in prime position to take advantage of a Cowboys team that will be coming off a road game in prime time against Pittsburgh the previous week with the 49ers on deck, giving them value for our Lions vs Cowboys prediction.

Conversely, Detroit will have had a bye the previous week, giving offensive coordinator Ben Johnson plenty of time to cook up the perfect offensive game plan to attack this Dallas defense that I’m projecting to have some major issues in the secondary. As long as the Lions’ offensive line can keep Jared Goff protected for the majority of the contest, he should have no trouble spreading the ball around and having plenty of success in this dome environment. I’ll gladly take the Lions as underdogs for my Lions vs Cowboys pick, as the line could flip by game week.

Lions vs Cowboys prediction: Lions ML (+100) available at time of publishing.

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This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so for our 49ers vs Bills prediction, why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only were 4 of those 5 teams in the playoffs last season, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one for our 49ers vs Bills best bet.

49ers vs Bills prediction: Bills ML (+110) available at time of publishing.

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