NFL Picks

We have a division-rivalry showdown in the AFC West between 2 teams trending in opposite directions as the Las Vegas Raiders get ready to host the Denver Broncos. The Raiders are circling the drain and it looks like head coach Antonio Pierce may only get one full season at the helm, while the Broncos are ascending and are coming off a blowout win over the Falcons. But as the old adage goes, the name of this game is buy low and sell high — and that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. The Broncos have been reasonably impressive lately, but there’s no way I could lay this many points with them on the road.

Right before the win over Atlanta, Denver had lost back-to-back games in which failed to score more than 14 points. And their only 2 other wins since October 6 came against the Saints with Spencer Rattler and against the Panthers, 2 of the worst teams in the league. And their last 2 wins before that were against the Raiders and the Jets by a single point. I’m still not sold on Bo Nix, and the Raiders should muster their best effort here at home against a division opponent. Las Vegas has struggled — it’s true. However, it has also faced an incredibly tough schedule of late. The Raiders’ last 5 games have come against the Steelers, Rams, Chiefs, Bengals and Dolphins — with 3 of those 5 coming on the road.

Gardner Minshew has quietly played pretty well the last 3 weeks since reclaiming his starting job over Aidan O’Connell. He has 4 touchdowns with only 1 interception over his last 3. Denver’s defense also struggles to cover tight ends, as Vance Joseph units tend to do, and the Raiders have the best tight end in the league right now in Brock Bowers. That will be something to watch, and I think the Raiders’ passing game will be able to do just enough to keep this one within the number.

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Raiders +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I also like the under in what should be a low-scoring affair. There is no love lost between these teams that are super familiar with one another, and they just played a handful of weeks ago. We have got a rookie quarterback on one side and Gardner Minshew on the other, so I’m not expecting a shootout. Bo Nix has made strides from his first couple of starts, but he’s still not great when the circumstances around him aren’t perfect. Before the explosion last week against Atlanta, Denver’s offense had failed to top 14 points in back-to-back games.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have very few weapons after trading away Davante Adams — and Brock Bowers can’t do it all by himself. Las Vegas has only scored more than 20 points once in its last 7 games, so I think the Broncos will be pretty conservative on offense knowing they can likely rely on their defense. Last week Denver held Atlanta’s usually productive offense to just 6 points and they made Kirk Cousins struggle while shutting down Bijan Robinson on the ground.

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the biggest surprises across the league this season, particularly in recent weeks with convincing victories over the Bears and Jets that have put Arizona into first place in a jam-packed NFC West division. What was most impressive in those victories was the Cardinals defense, as Arizona held Chicago and New York to a combined 15 points over those 2 wins, which further speaks to the excellent coaching job that Jonathan Gannon has done in his short tenure in Arizona. With that said, I’m not convinced that those wins have aged all that well, especially given how the offenses of the Bears and Jets looked in losses a week ago.

While the Cardinals have generated some hype in recent weeks, the same can’t be said for a Seahawks team that is suddenly very much in the division and Wild Card picture after rallying to upset the 49ers on the road a week ago. Mike Macdonald’s defense is getting healthier and the results certainly showed in a big way against a strong San Francisco offense coming out of the bye week, and I don’t think that effort was a one-off occurrence. The Seahawks will likely stick to a lot of two-high safety looks and put a roof on the explosive play potential of this Cardinals’ passing offense, which should force Arizona to be a bit more methodical and lean on its ground game on early downs. On the other side, Geno Smith has often played his best football in big moments this season, and I’d expect that to continue against a Cardinals pass defense that is still one of the weaker units in the league. Let’s take the Seahawks on the money line in what should be a true coin-flip game in Seattle.

Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There are obviously paths for both teams to win this game, but I still lean toward the Under, regardless of which side wins the game. Seattle’s offensive line continues to be a major issue, with the Seahawks sitting at 25th in pass-block win rate on the season. Geno Smith could be under pressure early on in this one, and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has shown that he has no problem with running the ball and trusting the short passing game to be an extension of the running game on early downs. The Seahawks’ defense is much stronger against the pass than the run, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals put the ball in James Conner’s hands and rely on the ground game to put Kyler Murray in advantageous situations on 3rd down. As long as both defenses can do a decent job of limiting explosive plays, we should be heading for a game played in the mid-to-low 20s on Sunday.

Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction: Under 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This one is a little juicy but we’re buying this one down a bit. James Conner finds himself in a great matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks are allowing the 3rd-most rushing yards per game to running backs. I’ve noticed a trend with Conner and it’s that he doesn’t put together back-to-back stinkers. Last week was most definitely a rough game for him, but he seems to bounce back every single time. Arizona is in the lead for their division and should rely on their bell-cow back to produce in this big-time matchup. I think Conner can get 60 by the 3rd quarter here if he’s running like we know he can.

The San Francisco 49ers travel to Green Bay this Sunday in FOX’s America’s Game of the Week, and the visitors desperately need a win. After picking up a 3-point road win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10 following their bye week, the Niners suffered a brutal 3-point defeat at home against the Seattle Seahawks. Now, San Francisco finds themselves in last place in the competitive NFC West and currently has +200 odds to make the playoffs. Although QB Brock Purdy has played relatively well this season, he threw for 159 yards against Seattle to go with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Now, he will go up against a Packers secondary that’s giving up just 207.5 passing yards per game (13th in the NFL).

Green Bay is coming off a nail-biter last weekend, but they escaped Chicago with a 20-19 victory over the Bears thanks to a last-second blocked field goal. Matt LaFleur remained undefeated against the Bears as the head coach of the Packers, and with a win on Sunday, he can improve to 3-2 against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. These 2 teams went head to head in San Francisco in the Divisional Round last season, with the Niners escaping with a 23-20 victory. However, Green Bay will now be playing in front of their home fans, which should make the difference in this one.

Although the Packers are just 3-2 at Lambeau Field this season, LaFleur posted a 32-9 regular-season record (.780) at home entering the season, which ranks first among head coaches in the NFL since 2019. Additionally, he is 25-4 against non-divisional opponents at home all-time. Although the 49ers desperately need a win, they’ve been plagued with injuries this season. WR Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, DL Nick Bosa left Sunday’s game against Seattle with a hip/oblique injury, QB Brock Purdy is day-to-day with right shoulder soreness and LT Trent Williams is dealing with a sore ankle. They should get TE George Kittle back on Sunday, but all signs point to a home win for the Pack, and I’ll back them to win by 3+ this Sunday as they continue to chase the Lions and Vikings for the NFC North crown.

49ers vs Packers prediction: Green Bay -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In addition to a Green Bay victory this Sunday, I anticipate that Sunday’s game will be a low-scoring affair as part of my 49ers vs Packers picks. San Francisco’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire, as they’ve scored 24 points or fewer in 6 of their 10 games this season. Additionally, 8 of San Francisco’s 10 opponents this year rank in the bottom half of the NFL in points allowed, and they put up just 18 and 17 points against Kansas City and Minnesota, who are the lone teams they’ve played that rank in the top half. Although some 49ers fans might point to the fact that RB Christian McCaffrey was out for most of those games, they’re only averaging 20 points per game in the 2 contests he’s played in.

Although the Niners’ offense has struggled at times this season, their defense has been fairly strong. They’re giving up just 22.2 points per contest (17th in the NFL) and are particularly good at stopping teams’ passing attacks (197.2 passing yards allowed per game — 8th in the NFL). Their secondary will be put to the test against a Packers offense averaging 238.2 yards per contest (9th in the NFL), and luckily for them, it looks like cornerback Charvarius Ward will be back in action after missing the last 2 weeks due to personal issues.  If San Francisco wants any chance to win this game, they’ll need their defense to come up big. I don’t see their offense scoring more than 20 points against Green Bay’s defense, as the Packers have improved week by week, and Brock Purdy is dealing with a right shoulder injury. The total has gone Under in 4 of both teams’ last 6 games, and I expect this trend to continue in Green Bay on Sunday afternoon.

49ers vs Packers prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 47 (-110).

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This could easily be an NFC playoff game in 2 months. The Eagles are soaring right now, on a high off 6 straight wins and playing the best defense we’ve seen from them in the last 2 seasons. They are justifiably a favorite on the road, but we can’t help but wonder how legitimate their success has been. Their last 6 foes have been the following: the Browns, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys (without Dak Prescott) and the Commanders (on a short week and with an injured Jayden Daniels). Other than Joe Burrow, it’s fair to say that the Eagles have faced a cupcake of opponents over the last month-plus. And they didn’t really “shut down” Burrow (26/37, 234 yards), either. Still, Philly is doing the best they can with what’s been put before them, and they’ve looked fantastic. Even better for their fans and bettors – their offense is as healthy as it has been all season, and running back Saquon Barkley (RIP, Giants) has been sensational (1,137 rushing yards, 2nd). In short, there’s tons to like about the Birds lately, but they’ll have a bigger test on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford looks as sharp as ever. Our pick to claim the title of the NFC’s best thrower, Stafford has earned at least 279 passing yards in the last 4 starts, with 8 passing TDs to boot. The return and continued health of his first-class wide-receiver duo, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, has made a huge difference, and their defense is growing every week (rookie standout linebacker Jared Verse is the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year). Besides one gaffe against Miami 2 weeks ago, the Rams have also been consistent, winners of 4 of their last 5, and they’re a team we’ll look to back as the season nears an end. We’re just not sure if we can do it this week. The Eagles’ rushing attack has been prolific, averaging 200 yards per game in their last 6 contests. For all of LA’s improvement defensively, they still allow too many big plays (23rd in opponent points/play), which is a metric we hate for them against a Philly offense that can break free at any moment. In a close game, we’ll take the road favorite, although teasing up the Rams isn’t a bad idea, either.

Eagles vs Rams prediction: Eagles -2.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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The Rams statistically haven’t been a great offense, at least not in summation of the whole season, but in their last 4 games they’ve been fantastic. LA averaged 25 ppg and 370 ypg in that span, and much of it was because of health. After some key injuries to their offensive line, adjustments have been made (a nod to their first-class coaching staff) and they’ve protected Stafford well. He’s gone 3 of his last 4 contests without a sack. More importantly, a recuperated Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are Stafford’s most important pieces, 2 dynamic receivers who no defense can completely stop when both are on the field. The Eagles’ defense has been good, but LAR is at home, on turf, in beautiful Southern California, and we suspect that they might be trailing in this contest. When Stafford is in that position, few QBs are better at inflating a scoreboard.

But no matter what side is leading, the other QB and the other offense should have plenty of success chasing. Saquon Barkley has been a revelation for the Eagles this season, responsible for 1,347 total yards, 35.5% of the Eagles’ total output. Saquon and an entirely healthy Philly offense should have little issue against a Rams’ defense that permits 350 yards per game, and many times against mediocre operations. This has high-scoring battle written all over it and we’re not hesitating in going with the Over.

Eagles vs Rams prediction: Over 48.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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The “Harbaugh Bowl” has returned as John’s Ravens will travel across the country to take on Jim’s Chargers. Baltimore is coming off a loss that has NFL analysts shifting their opinions (again) on their potential, while the Chargers are off a huge win on Sunday night, holding off a melee by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The market typically overreacts to these week-to-week situations, but we are encouraged to see that Baltimore is still getting the respect they deserve. We will argue they should get even more. Watching the Chargers this season proves how coaching can make a huge difference in football. Jim Harbaugh’s program is 7-3, competitive with the Chiefs in the AFC West, and they already have one of the NFL’s best defenses. Harbaugh has inherited a very talented roster on that side of the ball and he’s made the most out of it. And despite criticisms of the Bolts’ shallow wide-receiver depth chart, they’re doing plenty to win games (8th in yards/pass, 7.9). There is one area where the Chargers have consistently been a letdown all season, though – their run defense.

LA’s defense has mostly been terrific, but 11 weeks in they’re still allowing 4.7 yards per rush, a bottom-10 mark in the league (23rd). All year, good running teams have succeeded against the Chargers: Pittsburgh (114), Kansas City (110), Arizona (181) and Tennessee (157) to name a few. This is not great news with Derrick Henry and the Ravens coming to town, an offense that averages 5.8 yards/rush (1st) and 177.3 rush yards/game (2nd). On top of that, the Ravens are off a very emotional loss. Lamar Jackson is facing his share of criticism once again, with pundits and analysts claiming he cannot win “the big game” after another collapse against his rival. We’re not here to argue either way, but Sunday night does not qualify as a similar spot. The Ravens are angry, while the Chargers are probably a little too fat and sassy after surviving against Cincinnati and winning 4 straight. We like Baltimore to go off on Monday Night Football.

Ravens vs Chargers prediction: Ravens -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If we think the Ravens are going to explode on Monday night, you can probably guess which way we’re thinking from this angle. The Chargers’ defense has been sensational but let’s face it – they haven’t exactly faced a who’s-who of elite offenses lately. That is, they haven’t until last week. Before Week 11, LA dominated programs like Las Vegas, Carolina, New Orleans, Cleveland and Tennessee. Then Joe Burrow showed up and dropped 27 points in Los Angeles, including 21 second-half points and a near-comeback victory. In totality, Cincinnati accumulated 452 yards. While we’re not concerned about the long-term success of Jim’s defense, it’s worth noting that this is his first year back in the NFL, with a brand new group, and it’s extremely hard to prepare for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

The Ravens’ defense has also been disappointing, especially against above-average QBs (7.7 yards/pass allowed, 27th). Justin Herbert is healthy and looks more confident than ever with his new coach, and we’re betting on the fact that he can keep up with the Ravens for (most of) this contest.

Ravens vs Chargers prediction: Over 51 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so for our 49ers vs Bills prediction, why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only were 4 of those 5 teams in the playoffs last season, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one for our 49ers vs Bills best bet.

49ers vs Bills prediction: Bills ML (+110) available at time of publishing.

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We have a classic rivalry showdown here in the NFC East this week as the Washington Commanders get ready to host the Dallas Cowboys. A couple years ago it would have sounded crazy to say the Commanders would be one of the toasts of the league while the Cowboys would be a laughingstock, but that’s where we’re at. Dallas is in free-fall in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury and it is coming off a blowout loss at home to the Texans.

I think there is value in buying low on the Cowboys. We are getting them at their absolute rock-bottom price in the market after the spanking on national TV at the hands of Houston that everyone saw, but it’s important not to overreact. This is a division game that’s going to be hard-fought, and getting double-digits is too good of an opportunity to pass up. I also just think Washington is a bit overrated. The Commanders are 3-3 in their last 6, and that figure gets worse when you dig into it. Their 3 wins in that span? They have come against the Giants, Panthers and Bears. New York and Carolina might be the 2 worst teams in the league and Chicago hasn’t looked much better of late. And even the Bears they only beat on a last-second, walk-off Hail Mary.

Jayden Daniels has quietly come back down to Earth following his red-hot start, and over his last 2 games he has just 1 touchdown while averaging fewer than 6 yards per attempt. Even against the G-Men, the Commanders only managed to win by 5 in a game that came down to the wire after they almost choked to Daniel Jones. As such, I don’t see any reason to feel good about laying double-digits with them on Sunday. The Cowboys have also played much better on the road this year; they are 0-5 at home but 3-2 on the road.

Cowboys vs Commanders prediction: Cowboys +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Under also makes a lot of sense in this spot. With Dak Prescott out of the lineup, Dallas’ offense has an extremely low floor. The Cowboys have scored a combined 16 points in Cooper Rush’s 2 starts so far, and last week almost all of his stats came in garbage time with the game out of hand. Rush has been dreadful, and the team has no ground game to speak of. On the flip side, the Cowboys defense has started to get a lot healthier — with Micah Parsons and others returning to the lineup. The Commanders are in a similar boat, as their defense has trended up from the beginning of the year while their offense has trended down.

Jayden Daniels has struggled a bit lately and looks like he might not be 100 percent. Over his last 2 games, he has just 393 yards on 66 attempts (5.9 YPA), and he only has 1 touchdown in that span. He has also rushed for just 23 yards during the same stretch; his production on the ground has dropped off a cliff, as well. A total in the mid-40s feels a little steep for a division game featuring Cooper Rush on one side and a banged-up and struggling rookie on the other.

Cowboys vs Commanders prediction: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Lions will be looking to solidify their new status as Super Bowl favorites when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. That’s right; the Detroit Lions are favored to win the Super Bowl. They assumed the top spot for the first time this season — and first time in franchise history — following this past week’s 52-6 humiliation of the Jacksonville Jaguars that coincided with the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss. And it’s hard to argue with the odds. Detroit is an absolute wagon from an offensive standpoint. Jared Goff bounced back from his interception barrage in Week 10 by torching Jacksonville for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25-of-29 passing. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2), David Montgomery (2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1) scored at least 1 touchdown in the same game for the 8th time in their careers — already a record for 3 teammates in the history of the NFL.

Indianapolis +3.5 against the New York Jets was a 3-star best bet winner for me in Week 11, but I’m prepared to fade the Colts this time. After all, facing the Lions is the most opposite extreme you can possibly get compared to facing the Jets. Indy squandered all of a 13-0 lead over the Jets before recovering late, so that really doesn’t inspire much confidence. Jonathan Taylor averaging just 2.4 yards per carry in that game also isn’t encouraging. What’s even more worrying is that the Colts rank 26th in the league against the pass and 25th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt. How do you think they are going to stop Goff, St. Brown and the rest of the gang? I would be more than happy to play this at -7.5, which you can get at plus money (+100) at time of publishing. However, at less than a touchdown (and PAT) it evokes max confidence. The Lions should continue to roll.

Lions vs Colts prediction: Lions -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5 (+100).

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This is the highest total of the week, although there are 2 games just a half-point lower at time of publishing. Despite the lofty number, I have no reservations about backing the over when the Lions are involved. Their 336 points scored this season are the most in the NFL, and only the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are even in the same ballpark. Goff and company have racked up 52 points in 2 of their last 4 outings and they have scored at least 42 points on 2 other occasions. Gibbs and Montgomery are arguably the best running-back duo in the league, more than worthy of having a nickname bestowed upon them (Sonic and Knuckles). Detroit can score on anyone, but the offense is especially scary in this situation against an opposing defense that stinks against the pass. Indianapolis isn’t any good against the run, either, ranking 28th in that department.

The only good news for the Colts is that Anthony Richardson is back under center and he once again flashed his potential with 3 total TDs against the Jets (2 rushing, 1 passing). Detroit should do most of the work, but Indy can also contribute a decent amount toward the over.

Lions vs Colts prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The 1972 undefeated Miami Dolphins team can pop the champagne and rejoice as their record will stand for another year. Kansas City’s perfect season hopes ended in Week 11 as Patrick Mahomes fell short to Josh Allen in Buffalo. That game had plenty of excitement and anticipation leading up to kickoff which is something that can’t be said about the Chiefs’ Week 12 game. Following a tough loss to the Bills, the Chiefs will travel to Carolina to take on the 3-7 Panthers. As expected, the spread is double-digits in favor of Kansas City and there isn’t much reason to think the Chiefs won’t roll over Carolina. Patrick Mahomes has proven that he doesn’t need Rashee Rice or Isiah Pacheco to be successful considering he’s already beaten some of the league’s elite teams with Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt and newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins. And against Carolina, it might be the easiest game for Mahomes all year.

The Panthers won the Tankathon bowl against the Giants in Week 10. The 2 squads were shipped to Germany for that game and it featured a battle between a pair of 2-7 teams. The game wasn’t too exciting, but it finally ended with the Panthers kicking a game-winning field goal in overtime. And don’t look now, but that’s 2 straight wins for the Panthers! The term “winning streak” has evaded the Panthers for many years considering the last time they won 2 games in a row was in 2021. Maybe that’s why the spread for this game is only 10.5 points instead of 13.5, which is what I think it should be. Expect Hunt to exploit Carolina’s horrendous run defense and for the Chiefs to win this game by at least 2 touchdowns.

Chiefs vs Panthers prediction: Chiefs -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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This is an interesting scenario because these 2 teams couldn’t be more different on defense. The Panthers are allowing 160.1 rushing yards per game, which is by far the worst mark in football. In the last few weeks, they’ve allowed Tyrone Tracy Jr. to run for 103 yards, Alvin Kamara for 155 yards, Brian Robinson for 71 yards and Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to combine for 200 yards in one game. Get the point? Their defensive line is Swiss cheese and that means you should expect to see a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt and Carson Steele from the backfield. Plus, the Chiefs will more than likely be winning in the second half, which should mean they prioritize keeping the ball on the ground and the clock moving.

On the contrary, the Chiefs boast one of the best run defenses in all of football. A big reason for that is Chris Jones, who is a contender for Defensive Player of the Year. Kansas City is surrendering just 85.3 rushing yards per game, which is the 3rd-best mark in the NFL. No running back has been able to accumulate 60 rushing yards in a game against the Chiefs this season. The reason I mention this is because Carolina’s main source of offense is Chuba Hubbard. The 25-year-old running back just ran for over 150 yards last week and has recorded 18 or more carries in 7 of the last 8 games. But he’s in for a reality check against the Chiefs’ elite run defense. That’s going to keep Carolina’s offense stagnant and low-scoring, so I recommend taking the Under in this one-sided matchup.

Chiefs vs Panthers prediction: Under 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday in a pivotal NFC North matchup for both teams. The Bears fired their OC Shane Waldron before their Week 11 matchup against the Green Bay Packers last weekend, and while the offense did improve, Green Bay walked away with a 20-19 victory due to a block field goal at the end of regulation. The Bears cannot get out of their own way, as they had the chance to run another play before attempting to kick a game-winning FG, but head coach Matt Eberflus elected to kick on 2nd down instead. Now, they’re facing a must-win situation against Minnesota, or they may want to start looking toward the NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has been one of the bigger surprises this NFL season, and they picked up their third straight victory last weekend on the road against the Tennessee Titans 23-13. Although it was an ugly victory, it still counts in the win column, and the Vikings are just one game behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, while the Packers sit one game behind Minnesota. QB Sam Darnold has been effective in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and Brian Flores has this Minnesota defense playing extremely well. Minnesota has only been exposed by veteran QBs this season, but they are now playing in their third straight game on the road so they may start to show some fatigue.

As much as the Bears have fallen off after a 4-2 start, this game could be a turning point in their season. A win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and they’ve played quite well at Soldier Field this season. Chicago is 4-2 in front of their home fans and 5-1 against the spread, while the Vikings are 3-2 against the number playing on the road. However, they’re 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC North opponents, so I’ll take Chicago with the points and expect Sunday’s game to come down to field goal on either side.

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Bears +3.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3 (-125).

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My main Vikings vs Bears prediction for Sunday is for this NFC North matchup to be an absolute slog. While I did like what I saw from Chicago’s newly appointed playcaller Thomas Brown last weekend against the Packers, going up against a Brian Flores-led defense will be a different animal. Minnesota is blitzing opposing QBs at a 37.7% clip (1st in the NFL) this season, and the Vikings have caused fits for young quarterbacks. Minnesota has faced Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Mac Jones and Will Levis this season, and only Love and the Packers had success in a 31-29 defeat. However, the other 5 QBs managed to lead their offense to an average of just 10.5 points, and even if you add in the Packers’ high-scoring game, that average only goes up to 13.1 points.

On the flip side, the Bears’ defense has been one of the lone bright spots for this Chicago team. In their 6 home games, the Bears have allowed an average of 16.7 points per contest, and no team has scored more than 20 points at Soldier Field. Additionally, Minnesota’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks after their hot start, and they’ve tallied just 21.0 points per game since their bye week. The hosts have done a great job containing opposing QBs at home this season, as only Jordan Love has thrown for more than 250 yards while facing the Bears in Chicago.

The Bears allow just 18.7 points per game (7th in the NFL), while the Vikings give up 17.0 (4th in the NFL). Chicago has seen each of their last 4 games finish Under while Minnesota’s last 3 contests finished Under as well. Additionally, the previous 5 meetings at Soldier Field between these squads finished Under the total. I expect all 3 trends to continue this Sunday and will back the Under in this NFC North rock fight. 

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Under 39.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 38.5 (-110).

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It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins host the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Miami is just 4-6, but that leaves it only 1.5 games out of a playoff spot and Tua Tagovailoa is healthy — at least for now. In other words, the season is far from over in South Beach. It is, however, pretty much must-win mode for the Dolphins — a mode that has served them well so far this month. Once 2-6, they have reeled off consecutive victories over the Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders. They won those games by a combined 23 points, so it’s clear the Fins have no trouble rising to the occasion when the pressure is on. In 4 appearances since his return from a concussion, Tagovailoa has tossed 7 touchdown passes compared to just 1 interception.

The Patriots have some future promise with rookie quarterback Drake Maye playing well, but the present is a much different story. Maye has little help around him, so the team as a whole is less than impressive. It is 3-8 overall, and since Week 1 its only wins have come over the New York Jets and Chicago Bears. New England hasn’t produced a 100-yard rusher since Week 1 and Maye has led the team in rushing in 3 of the last 6 contests. If they want to have any chance this weekend, the Pats will have to find a running back — because Miami boasts a stellar pass defense. The Dolphins have easily taken care of 2 straight opponents that are somewhere between mediocre and bad. That is exactly what they should do again on Sunday, winning by at least a touchdown.

Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Dolphins -7 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This could be a difficult spot for Maye, especially if he continues to get minimal help from the running game. The Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL against the pass (199.0 yards per game allowed) and 7th in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.6). They have also given up the 6th-fewest touchdowns through the air (10). New England ranks 3rd-last league-wide in points per game at 16.5, and there is little reason to think the visitors will exceed that on Sunday — at least not by any significant margin.

Fortunately for the Patriots, they can at least play some defense. They are surrendering a modest 22.5 points per game and in 3 of 5 road games they have limited opponents to 3, 10 and 17 points in regulation. It’s also worth noting that these 2 teams faced each other in New England on October 6 and the result was an anemic 15-10 victory for Miami. Obviously you can’t read too much into a matchup between Tyler Huntley and Jacoby Brissett, but still, 25 total points are 25 total points. The rematch won’t be quite like that, but I’m expecting another defensive affair. I’m riding the Under in this one.

Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Under 46 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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This looks like a great bet at plus-money odds. Maye is already 34.5 elsewhere and I like it there too. New England enters this game as 7.5-point underdogs which should mean that they have to pass throughout all 4 quarters. When Drake Maye starts and New England loses the game, he has thrown for an average of 37.5 passes a game. This Miami team is perfect to target because they are capable of deep balls that can help our game script but also help New England get the ball back and not get pounded on time of possession. Miami has allowed the last 4 quarterbacks they have faced to smash this number against them. I truly think this number should be 35.5 so getting 2 attempts lower at plus-money odds looks to hold great value.

It goes without saying that this has become yet another lost season for the New York Giants. Brian Daboll’s team is now 2-8 on the year and looks to be heading toward another NFL Draft where they have a top 5 pick in the 1st round. This is one of the worst teams in football, and the organization has now made a move at quarterback that seems geared toward keeping attendance from suffering, rather than actually competing in football games. Tommy DeVito has been named as the starting quarterback for this week’s game against Tampa Bay, and while his story was fun for a few games last season, there is clearly some revisionist history about his time as a starter during that run. In fact, only Bailey Zappe and Tim Boyle had a lower success rate than DeVito out of all qualifying quarterbacks a season ago. DeVito is still a clear downgrade from Daniel Jones at the position, even factoring in how bad Jones has been this season. It certainly doesn’t help matters that he’ll be facing a Todd Bowles defense that should be able to generate consistent pressure on the young quarterback, which will surely force him into making a few ill-advised throws.

On the other side, Baker Mayfield has been doing his best to navigate through a number of injuries on the offensive side of the ball for Tampa Bay. With that said, it won’t be that hard to find success against the Giants, as New York ranks 25th in defensive DVOA, while Tampa’s star receiver Mike Evans looks set to return in this game. The Buccaneers should be able to move the ball consistently against this poor Giants secondary, so let’s back Mayfield and Tampa Bay to win and cover this number while it’s still under a touchdown.

Bucs vs Giants prediction: Buccaneers -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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Conditions aren’t setting up to be too bad for points on Sunday, but I still can’t get there with the Giants’ offense, especially since New York is not equipped to push the ball downfield with DeVito at quarterback. In fact, the Syracuse product led the NFL pressure-to-sack rate of nearly 40% last season, so if the Buccaneers are able to generate consistent pressure, I can’t see DeVito and the Giants’ passing attack succeeding in this one. Therefore, I fully expect Daboll to stick to a methodical game script and focus on matriculating the ball downfield, which should chew up a ton of clock, even if the Giants are unsuccessful at maintaining longer drives. On the other side, the Buccaneers should just be looking to stay healthy and get out of MetLife Stadium with a victory. I’m leaning toward the Under in this matchup.

Buccaneers vs Giants prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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The Texans picked up a statement win in Week 11. Monday Night Football featured an in-state rivalry between the Texans and Cowboys that didn’t stay competitive for long. The game became a talent show for Joe Mixon, who finished with over 100 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. His supporting cast of Nico Collins and Tank Dell didn’t need to do much since the game got out of hand by the second half. Houston’s dangerous duo will have a more difficult matchup in Week 12 against a Titans secondary that has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season. However, Sam Darnold proved that you can still have success against the Titans’ defense as long as you spread the wealth. The Vikings beat the Titans by 10 last week and it was because Darnold completed a pass to 9 different receivers and took care of the ball. That’s likely going to be the game plan for CJ Stroud: utilize his talented group of receivers and don’t just rely on Collins.

The Tennessee offense has been a problem this season. In their last 6 games, the Titans have scored 13, 17, 20, 14, 10 and 17 points. The only time they reached 20 points has an asterisk next to it since it took them until overtime to reach that number. Regardless, you can see the trend. And it won’t get any easier for Will Levis on Sunday since the Texans are allowing the 6th-fewest passing yards per game this season. Houston limited the Cowboys to just 10 points in Week 11 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans finish with a similar score. I’m envisioning a score ending around 30-14 in favor of the Texans, so back the home team to cover the spread.

Titans vs Texans prediction: Texans -8.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

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You might be able to tell my opinion on the total based on my score prediction above. The Texans’ offense is elite when the team is largely healthy and that’s finally the case again now that Nico Collins is back. Houston’s WR1 had been out for the last month or so with a hamstring injury but finally returned to the offense last week. Although his stat line didn’t jump off the page, just know that he had a 77-yard touchdown called back and he didn’t play much in the second half because it was a blowout. He’s still an elite receiver and Tank Dell is an excellent Robin to his Batman. Plus, Joe Mixon has rushed for at least 100 yards in 6 of his 8 games this season. Expect a heavy dose of Mixon on the ground too against Tennessee’s below-average run defense.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Levis or the Titans’ offense, but it was eye-opening to see the Texans’ secondary allow Cooper Rush to throw for 354 yards last week. That could open the door for Levis to have a strong day through the air, especially since he threw for 295 yards against the Vikings last week. Plus, I’m not expecting the Titans to score 20 or more points for this Over to win. As long as they score anywhere from 10 to 17 points, I think the Over has a great chance.

Titans vs Texans prediction: Over 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.

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