For the second consecutive week, survivor players have a substantial number of moderate-to-heavy favorites from which to choose. If you’re still alive in your pool with just 5 weeks left in the season, you should no longer be taking the game week-to-week, and should instead have a good idea of what your approach should be the rest of the way. Last week, we advised you to take the Rams (37-7 winners against Jacksonville) instead of the Chiefs, knowing further opportunities would present themselves to take the 2-time defending AFC champions.
Who to pick in a Week 14 NFL survivor pool
In past years we have given a few different recommendations for games to pick and ones to avoid each week. But survivor pools come in different sizes and the strategy for outlasting your coworkers in an 8-person office pool is vastly different from that of a national pool that hundreds of thousands of Americans can enter before the season starts.
In a smaller pool, particularly early in the season, it’s important to last week-to-week and see if any of your competitors drop before making any risky moves. In a larger pool it’s much more important to try to separate yourself from the pack to gain an edge, as it does you no good to pick the same team as everyone else whether that team wins or loses. So you’ll definitely need to take some more chances early on in order to make a move and better position yourself for the end.
GENERAL PICK: Kansas City Chiefs (-450 ML) over Las Vegas Raiders (+340).
Like all survivor players must do over the course of the season, we’ve picked a different team for our general recommendation each week of 2021, and will continue to do so until the end of the season. Through the first 3 months of the season, we’ve yet to play our Chiefs card, but the time has now come to part ways with the team most players considered the most valuable in any survivor player’s arsenal.
After a rocky start to the year, the Chiefs are finally looking like the team we all thought they were. Patrick Mahomes and co. have done their thing, but the most encouraging sign has been the consistent toughness from the defense over the past month. Kansas City hasn’t given up more than 17 points in 5 straight games, holding their opponents to single digits in 3 of their last 4. They blew out the Raiders 41-14 when they met a month ago and, with the same matchup now at Arrowhead, shouldn’t struggle much more this time. Take Kansas City to move into week 15.
RISKY PICK: New Orleans Saints (-240 ML) over New York Jets (+195).
It’s quite possible that you’ve gotten as far as you have by playing the best teams at the first possible opportunity. While that’s not necessarily a bad strategy, it does limit your options towards the end of the season. If you’ve already parted ways with this week’s heaviest favorites, there’s a good chance you still have the Saints, a team that’s struggled to find a quarterback all season, available. Picking against the Jets is always a good idea. If you can’t figure out who to play, consider New Orleans.
GAME TO AVOID: Green Bay Packers (-600 ML) vs Chicago Bears (+435).
Much like last week, we’re picking a game to avoid not because we’re not confident in the result, but because that team could be better used further down the road. We advised you not to pick the Chiefs in week 13, making them available for their home game against the struggling Raiders this week. While Green Bay is more heavily favored than any other team this week, coming in as 12.5-point favorites, this isn’t necessarily the best time to take the Packers.
Green Bay’s week 18 contest could turn out to mean everything – they’re currently tied for 2nd in the NFC, a game behind the Cardinals for the top spot, and the way things are currently looking, the Packers’ final regular-season game of the year could make the difference between receiving a first-round playoff bye or not. Thankfully for them, they’re playing the Lions, the team with the worst record in the league and only a draft pick to play for, to close out the season. Tentatively pencil in the Packers for that week (of course, plenty can change from now until then), but don’t play them this week.
How Does an NFL Survivor Pool Work?
For those of you who have never played survivor or are unfamiliar with how it works, the concept is simple: last as long as you can without incorrectly picking the outcome of a game. You just need to select one game per week, and if you pick the winner correctly you move on to the next week. The ultimate goal is to be the last player standing in your pool.
There’s just one catch: you can only pick each team once per season. This is where strategy comes in; it would be easy enough to pick the Chiefs every week, but you’re only allowed to go with them once and need to find 17 other winners throughout the season to finish a perfect 18-0.
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