The AFC Championship game concludes Sunday’s doubleheader with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Buffalo Bills. Both teams come into this one red hot, and will look to extend their season by one more game.
The home team Chiefs opened as short favorites, with a lofty game total of 54.5. Don’t let yourself place any bets without checking out our full game coverage for both matchups on this Championship Sunday.
This matchup proved tricky from a player prop standpoint. With each team playing well on both sides of the ball, there were several different angles I could have gone with. But, in the end, I’m hanging my hat on the MVP quarterback of the Chiefs to get his team moving methodically down the field.
Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 completions
Line available at publishing. Playable up to -130.
After a concussion knocked him out of last week’s game, reports are that Mahomes has passed protocol and will be suiting up versus the Bills. Ideal for the Chiefs, of course, but it also presents an interesting matchup versus the Bills’ defense. Mahomes is coming off another tremendous season, where he completed 26 passes per game, in addition to 4,740 yards and 40 combined touchdowns. Versus the Bills in Week 6, he was actually kept in check, completing 21 passes for 225 yards — some of his lower game totals on the season. So what am I seeing in this matchup that changes things?
First, let’s focus on the Chiefs. Their rushing attack comes into the game banged up. Running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell are both questionable. Darrel Williams did play well last week, rushing for 78 yards on 13 attempts. However, even after Mahomes exited, the Chiefs remained a pass-first team. During the regular season, the Chiefs ran the ball over Buffalo, totaling 245 yards and 46 attempts as a team — by far their most heavy gamescript this season. I expect the Chiefs to throw more than 36 percent of the time in this game, with Buffalo’s rush defense vastly improved since their first matchup.
Secondly, as we already established, Mahomes is coming off a concussion. It’s likely that coach Andy Reid will drum up plays to get the ball out of Mahomes’ hands quick, in an effort to keep Mahomes as clean as possible. This is actually very conducive to how Buffalo typically schemes defensively, which leads us to…
The Matchup
This portion of the game is strength on strength: the Chiefs’ high-powered aerial attack versus the Bills stout pass defense. This season, Buffalo held their opponents to the 10th fewest yards per attempt and yards per completion. They excelled with keeping plays in front of them, allowing the eighth fewest 20+ yard pass plays. And from an advanced standpoint, they allowed the shortest average target to opposing quarterbacks (6.9 yards) and the sixth least yards after catch per reception (5.94). All of this spells short passing attack for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
During their regular season matchup, Mahomes’ average target depth was 6.2 yards — well below his season average of 8.3. Gameplans can always change, but to me, this reads as a high volume, shallow passing game type of day.
The Conclusion
I love betting on the best player in big games, when the numbers allow for it. In looking to advance to their second Super Bowl in as many years, the Chiefs will lean on their MVP quarterback. I have Mahomes pegged at 29 completions.
Check out my NFC Championship player prop bets too for an additional pick!
Free NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Picks and Predictions
Be sure to check out our full-game previews for every matchup this weekend:
We’ve also come up with a same game parlay for Bills vs. Chiefs at almost 87/1 odds!
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