After an absolutely insane Week 18, we move onto a supersized Wild Card weekend. First up on the docket is a matchup between the Raiders and Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off a suprising season in which they won the AFC North for the first time since 2015. And last week, the Raiders took down the Chargers in a playoff-clinching win. Before I get to my favorite bet, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
These two teams met back in Week 11, with the Bengals dismantling the Raiders 32-13. While the NFL is very much a week-to-week league, there are some prevailing themes from that game I’m keying in on with my best play of the game.
Don’t miss our same game parlay for Raiders vs Bengals (+1336 odds!)
Josh Jacobs (LVR) under 89.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing. Playable down to under 85.5 rushing + receiving yards.
Jacobs had an up-and-down season as the primary rusher. He averaged 81 rushing and receiving yards per game, staying under this line in 9 of his 15 contests. Against Cincinnati, Jacobs only compiled 61 yards on 14 total touches as the Bengals completely controlled time of possession.
Since we’re taking the combined line, let’s break down each facet.
Inefficient on the ground
Following a strong Week 18 performance, Jacobs was able to just crack 4.0 yards per rush. However, 3 of his best games on the ground (132 yards vs LAC, 129 vs DEN, 76 vs NYG) came against teams ranked 30th, 21st, and 32nd in Football Outsider’s rush defense DVOA metric. Stripping those three advantageous matchups out, Jacobs’ yards per carry plummets to 3.5.
The Bengals’ rush defense ranks 13th in DVOA. While they’ve been above average against the ground game, they also have been able to limit attempts. Opposing running backs only averaged 19.2 carries per game versus Cincinnati, the 6th lowest mark in the league. Part of the reason for that is pace.
Slow game
Of the 6 matchups this weekend, this game rates as the slowest in all of RotoViz’s pace metrics. Both teams are deliberate in their play calling, with the Bengals likely to lean on their own ground game heavily as well.
In a slow game on the road, with the Raiders coming in as underdogs, there are several conceivable scenarios in which the Raiders have to abandon the run game earlier than they’d like.
The passing game
With Jacobs having his best year catching the ball, and the Bengals struggling a bit defending running backs in the pass game, you might be confused why I’m playing the combined line.
The reasoning is twofold. Firstly, Jalen Richard ran 20 routes last week, which equaled Jacobs’ total out the backfield. It’s the first time since Kenyan Drake’s season ending injury in which Jacobs ceded that much passing game work. Richard is the better receiver of the two, and the potential for him to poach more work is there. And secondly, this combined line provides a full 10 yards of cushion versus the individual rushing and receiving lines.
The projection
Darren Waller is back, giving Derek Carr one of his best offensive weapons back. While the Raiders ideally will want to pound the ball on the ground, in the playoffs, game-plans can be abandoned quickly. I have Jacobs projected closer to 75 total yards son Saturday.
Check out our full game analysis of Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
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