The Bills and Chiefs square off on Sunday night to cap off the NFL’s Divisional Round weekend. With no disrespect intended to the other AFC squads, conference supremacy always seemed it would come down to a clash of these teams. Before I get to my favorite bet, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
This rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game should be a doozy. Almost every facet of this game will be closely contested, as both teams are flush with talent. While I expect the stars to play like stars, there is one specific role player who has emerged as a key cog for the Bills over the last few weeks.
Check out Jared Smith’s best bets and insights for the NFL divisional round.
Gabriel Davis (BUF) over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing. Playable up to over 37.5 receiving yards.
The second-year receiver out of UCF has really come on for the Bills over the latter part of the season. Including last week’s romp of the Patriots, Davis has notched at least 30 receiving yards in 7 straight games, and at least 39 in 6 of those 7. Over that span, he’s second on the team in both targets and receiving yards. And in each the last 5 games, he’s been on the field for at least 70% of the offensive snaps.
Davis excels as a downfield threat in this high-powered offense. He averaged 15.1 yards per catch this season, which ranked 9th in the NFL, and 13 of his 35 catches went for at least 20 yards, while he secured 25 of 42 targets that traveled at least 10 air yards. His rapport with Josh Allen is evident, which has led to his increased snap share.
Playing opposite Stefon Diggs, Davis sees plenty of single coverage. The matchup versus the Chiefs plays to the sophomore receiver’s strengths, as Kansas City deploys man coverage on the outside at a high rate. The speedy receiver was prolific against man coverage this season, averaging 2.41 yards per route run. Not only did this lead the Bills by a wide margin, it ranked 19th in the NFL among receivers.
Based on his season averages, a 3-catch day for Davis should easily eclipse the over on this play. Anticipating another strong snap share, in a potential shootout with the Chiefs, I’m loving this play on the dynamic pass catcher. I have Davis’ receiving yards projected in the mid-40s.
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