Saturday Night’s Divisional matchup features a rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship game. The 49ers and Packers square off in what’s forecasted to be single-digit temperatures in Green Bay. Before I get to my favorite bet, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
Both of these teams come into this matchup playing some of their best football (as one might expect at this point). However, my best bet of the night actually features a player who has stayed relatively quiet on the stat sheet over the last month.
Check out Jared Smith’s best bets and insights for the NFL divisional round.
George Kittle (SF) over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable up to 51.5 yards.
The 49ers tight end had another strong season, once again asserting himself amongst the upper echelon at his position. Kittle pulled in 910 yards receiving in just 14 games, reaching 50 yards half of the time.
When you look game-to-game, though, the Iowa product was very boom-or-bust. Kittle exceeded 75 yards receiving 6 times, and was held under 30 yards 5 times (not including last week’s 18-yard performance against the Cowboys). The truth is the 49ers offense is set up to attack defenses in a variety of ways, so Kittle’s production is matchup dependent.
With the Packers, Kittle should have no issue exploiting their defensive scheme. The Packers rank 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA metric against tight ends. Against teams first, second, and “other” wide receivers, they rank no lower than 7th. Green Bay has actually faced most of the NFL’s premier tight ends this season, including Kittle. In those games:
- Mark Andrews – 136 yards
- Travis Kelce – 68 yards
- George Kittle – 92 yards
- TJ Hockenson – 66 yards
Not only did each tight end rack up the yardage, but he also led his respective team in receiving against Green Bay.
Even though he has failed to reach 30 yards in each of his last 4 games, Kittle should be in store for a big game. The Packers play more zone than Kittle’s recent opponents, which will allow the 5th-year pro to flourish. When facing a zone scheme as opposed to man, Kittle sees an uptick in his yards per route run (2.6 vs 1.7), average depth of target (8.4 vs 7.6), and yards per reception (14.0 vs 12.4).
Overall, Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking for the big man often. I have Kittle’s yardage projected in the low 60s.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Predictions and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
