Super Wild Card Weekend rolls on with a matchup of two historic franchises. The NFC East-winning Dallas Cowboys play host to the San Francisco 49ers, who are fresh off their Week 18 playoff-clinching victory. Before I get to my favorite bets, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
Sportsbooks have this game pegged as a potential barn-burner. The 51-point total (as of publishing) is the highest on the board among the 6 matchups this weekend. Despite the potential for a lot of offense, I’m seeing some value in an under for one of the Cowboys’ pass-catchers.
Dalton Schultz (DAL) under 17.5 yards of longest reception (-113)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
While these type of props are not for the faint of heart, there are several intriguing trends with this play. Schultz has had a breakout season for the Cowboys, with 78 catches for 808 yards across 17 games. However, he has stayed under this line in 11 of those 17 games, and only 9 of his catches exceeded 17 yards.
In fact, the Stanford product has stayed under this line in each of his last 6 games. In that span his average depth of target (6.2 yards) is down almost a full yard versus the 11 games prior. Only 8 of his 38 targets traveled even 10 air yards.
Schultz also doesn’t pose much of a threat after the catch. His 4.4 yards after the catch ranks 29th amongst qualifying tight ends.
Moreover, San Francisco happens to possess one of the best defenses versus tight ends. The 49ers allowed the 5th-fewest receptions to the position group, the 2nd-fewest yards, and the fewest yards per catch. Only 5 of the 65 catches allowed to tight ends exceeded 17 yards.
Dak Prescott will have plenty of weapons at his disposal to push the ball down the field. While Schultz is sure to bring in some receptions, I like those to stay of the short and intermediate variety.
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