The Sunday wild-card triple-header concludes with an AFC showdown. The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. These two represent very different play styles, with the Steelers hoping for a slugfest and the Chiefs looking to boast their explosive offense. Before I get to my favorite bet, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
While this game might very well be Ben Roethlisberger’s final stand in the NFL, I’m not so quick to write off the cagey quarterback. In fact, I’m relying on him to get the ball to one of this favorite weapons, with my player prop of the game.
Najee Harris (PIT) over 3.5 receptions (-120)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
The Steelers’ rookie running back made his presence felt this season. Not only did he rush for 1,200 yards, but 74 catches paced all running backs. He caught at least 4 passes in 9 of his 17 games, including 7 of 9 games the Steelers either lost or tied.
What’s the most appealing aspect of this play though, is the matchup. The Chiefs allowed the 4th most receptions by running backs, at the 4th highest catch share. Their defense is predicated on slowing down receivers down the field and conceding shorter passes. Roethlisberger, known to be a check-down artist, easily defers to Harris on short gains when his receivers struggle to get open.
Plus, the Chiefs bring the pressure on the opposing quarterback. With the 6th-highest pressure percentage, Big Ben is likely to have to get the ball out quickly. Harris racked up 5 catches on 7 targets in their regular season meeting in Week 16.
And yes, Harris did get a bit banged up in Week 18, but was able to finish the game. Coming into Sunday night without an injury designation has me believing he will see a full workload.
The Steelers come into this game as massive +12.5 underdogs and are likely to find themselves in plenty of passing situations. Harris is sure to play a big part in the passing game, once again. I have the former Alabama running back projected with anther 5 catches in this one.
Check out our full game analysis of Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs.
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