After a busy, yet underwhelming Super Wild Card Weekend, the Divisional round is upon us. While fans are hoping for some more competitive games this weekend, sports bettors are flush with opportunity to wager on each matchup. With the Bengals and Titans kicking us off Saturday afternoon, we’ve been gifted a battle between two intriguing teams right off the bat. Before I get to my favorite bet, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
Back in the preseason, if you bet that these two teams would make the second round of the playoffs, you would have made a sizable profit. Both teams flew past their expectations this season, with stars emerging on both sides of the ball. However, it’s arguably one of the biggest stars in the NFL’s return from injury that is influencing my best play of the game.
Check out Jared Smith’s best bets and insights for the NFL divisional round.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) under 21.5 completions (-108)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing. Playable up to 51.5 yards.
Coming off their first round bye, the Titans get a massive boost with the return of Derrick Henry. In case you had forgotten, the bruising back totaled 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 8 regular season games this season. While Tennessee was able weather the storm without him, this offense is dramatically different with Henry looming in the backfield.
And that doesn’t just apply to the run game, but the passing game as well. Here are Tannehill’s splits with and without his All-Pro running back:
- With Henry: 7.6 yards per attempt, 11.6 yards per completion, 7.9 yards average depth of target; stayed under this line in 6 of 8 games (excluding OT)
- Without Henry: 6.4 yards per attempt, 9.4 yards per completion, 7.3 yards average depth of target; stayed under stayed under in 5 of 9 games
Henry’s presence commands so much attention, Tannehill faces weaker coverages when looking to throw, especially when running play-action. With AJ Brown and Julio Jones both healthy, Tannehill should be able to pick up chunk yardage when he does throw.
Reports are that Henry is fully healthy, and ready for a full workload. Cincinnati’s run defense has shown some cracks of late, and looked relatively shaky against Josh Jacobs last week. Even if the Alabama product isn’t a full go, I still like this play.
Plus, both these teams grade below average in terms of pace. With the Titans resorting back to their run-first, downfield passing approach, I see plenty of value in the under on this play. I have the Tennessee signal caller projected at 19 completions.
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