After a very tumultous NFL week dominated by roster and schedule maneuvering, NFL Sunday can’t get here soon enough. Capping us off will be the Buccaneers and Saints in an NFC South battle. The Bucs, looking to once again reign supreme, will look to avenge their earlier loss at the hands of New Orleans. Before I get to my favorite bet of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
Earlier this week, I dropped one play for this game: Taysom Hill’s rushing attempts. But in this high-powered matchup, there’s another play I love. Switching to the Bucs offense, I’m looking at their white-hot receiver to keep it rolling.
Chris Godwin (TB) over 76.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
It’s safe to say Godwin is on top of his game right now. The fifth-year wide-out has 25 catches for 258 yards over the last two weeks – that’s half a year’s worth of production for most receivers. Over the season, he’s already surpassed 1,000 yards in his 13 games, with 5 100+ yard performances.
Since Antonio Brown went down with an injury (and was subsequently suspended), Godwin has seen a 25% target share from Tom Brady. And, in the same span, Godwin has seen his air yard share spike to 23% (compared to 18% previously). He’s not only seeing more volume, but deeper targets down the field.
Against the Saints, Godwin will once again be Brady’s preferred target. Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been Bucs receiver Mike Evans’ kryptonite. Evans has not cracked 70 yards against New Orleans since the 2018 season. In Week 8, Lattimore once again held Evans to only 48 yards and 4 targets (compared to Godwin’s 140 yards and 12 targets).
The Saints also possess the number 1 rush defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. So, even in a game with a double digit spread, Brady should be throwing often.
I have Godwin once again projected for a massive workload – 10 targets and more than 90 yards.
Check out our full game analysis of New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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