After what’s sure to be a long day of NFL action on Sunday, make sure you save some energy for the nightcap. We’re treated to an AFC North showdown between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. In such a hotly contested division, this game will bring the fireworks. Before I get to my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
Even though they haven’t played this season, these teams are very familiar with eachother. In these divisional matchups, my focus is on what works best for each team. In this case, my best bet of the night hones in on one of the Ravens most productive offensive weapons.
Mark Andrews (BAL) over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
Andrews is putting together another Pro Bowl caliber season for the Ravens. With 56 catches for 696 yards, the fourth year pro has exceeded this line in 7 of 10 games this season.
In Baltimore’s offense, Andrews is relied on to stretch the field just as much as the wide receivers. The Oklahoma product ranks 5th in the NFL amongst tight ends with 12.4 yards per reception, and 6th in yards per target (8.8). His excellent rapport with Lamar Jackson is evident, as the signal caller has completed 70% of his passes directed to his tight end.
Now, that’s all just a bunch of numbers. But the matchup against the Browns is a juicy one for Andrews. The big man has soared past this line in 4 of his 5 games against the Browns with Jackson at the helm. This season, Cleveland ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA against tight ends (per football outsiders).
Cleveland is also strong against the run (11th in yards per carry), and possesses a stout secondary. Even with the Ravens receiver core fully healthy, it’s Andrews who should have the most advantaegous matchup.
Since Week 3, Andrews yard share is 28%. With Jackson implied around 235 yards by sportsbooks, and given the plus matchup, Andrews should have no issue clearing this line. I have his yardage projected in the low 60s on Sunday night.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens.
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