Before the main slate kicks off on Sunday, we head accross the pond for the first of the 2021 London games. The Jets and Falcons square off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in a battle of 1-3 teams. Before I give my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our experts picks for game sides and totals.
These London games have been a mixed bag over the years. The Falcons bucked tradition and decided to fly out after their Thursday practice in Atlanta, as opposed to spending a full week abroad. With the potential for jetlag to set in, and without some key players, we could see a slow start from Atlanta. That, and a lot more, plays into my favorite prop for the game.
Matt Ryan (ATL) under 264.5 passing yards (-113)
Line available at time of publishing.
Matty Ice is off to a slow start slinging the ball. He currently ranks 27th in the NFL amongst starting quarterbacks in pass yards per attempt (6.2). And life across the pond won’t get much easier for the Falcons quarterback, as he’ll be without his leading receiver Calvin Ridley, and slot receiver Russell Gage.
No Ridley – then who?
Rookie tight end, Kyle Pitts, figures to soak up some of Ridley’s targets. However, Ryan and Pitts have had a tough go finding a connection thus far, with only 15 of 26 successful completions (58%). Unproven receivers such as Olamide Zaccheus, Christain Blake, and Tajae Sharpe will likely see plenty of snaps as well.
And, of course, Ryan will continue to lean on both his running backs–Mike Davis and fantasy football darling Cordarrelle Patterson. With each registering -1.7 and 1.6 yard aDOTs respectively, it will be tough for Ryan to rack up the yardage on the shallow routes.
A sneaky tough matchup
Plus, the Jets possess a better pass defense than most realize. Currently ranking 12th in opponent’s yard per target (6.5), the Jets actually represent the pass defense that Ryan will have faced thus far this season. They’ve held 3 of 4 opposing quarterbacks under this total in regulation (Ryan Tannehill did sneak over in overtime last week). And, the Jets have allowed the 7th-lowest depth of target defensively. All positive signs to the under.
The projection
With Ryan implied at 35 passes by sportsbooks, he would have to average 7.6 yards per attempt to climb over this total. That would be his best game of the season thus far, a tall task to ask of him without his number one target. In what should be a slower (and potentially sleepy) game, I have the 14-year veteran’s yard’s projected in the high 240s.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons
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