We cap off NFL Week 11 with a Monday Night battle at the home of the defending champs. Tampa Bay will look to put a stop to their two-game skid against the visiting New York Giants. Things always get interesting when Tom Brady goes up against the Giants, to say the least. Before I get to my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
The Bucs come into this one as 11-point favorites. Even in the midst of some sub-par play, I expect them to control the ball and the clock against the underachieving Giants. This sentiment goes hand in hand with my best bet of the game.
Leonard Fournette (TB) over 14.5 rush attempts (-122)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
Leonard Fournette has emerged as the unquestioned lead back for the dynamic Bucs offense. He’s handled the ball on 67% of the Bucs’ running-back rush attempts, with 112 totes across 9 games. Despite the LSU product eclipsing this line only 3 times in 9 games, this matchup sets up well for him to get his touches.
The Giants’ strength is their pass defense. Big Blue ranks 10th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.0), but 24th in rush yards per attempt (4.5). Up against Tom Brady, it’s evident that New York will pull out all the stops to slow down the passing game. This will allow Tampa Bay’s ground game to stay effective throughout.
And while they struggle against the run, it’s more of a bend-but-don’t-break situation. The Giants have allowed only 2 rush attempts of more than 20 yards. Meaning, opposing running backs are getting chunk yardage, but not breaking away. This is why the Giants are allowing the 7th-most running-back rush attempts per game (23.7) and the 4th-most overall plays (67.2).
Even in the NFL’s most pass-happy offense, this game sets up nicely for Fournette to rack up his carries. I have the 5-year veteran projected at 17 attempts.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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