With baseball taking the day off before the playoffs start, all eyes will be on the gridiron for Monday Night Football. The Las Vegas Raiders travel back to their former home state to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in their new stadium. Both teams have combined for just one loss thus far this season, and have played better than their preseason expectations. Before I get into my favorite player props, be sure to check out our experts picks for game sides and totals.
Each teams’ offense has been clicking to start the year, hence the high point total (51.5 as of publishing). With more points usually comes more offense, meaning there should be no shortage of skill position players primed for a big night.
Mike Williams (LAC) over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at time of publishing.
It took 5 seasons, a few different quarterbacks, and a scheme change, but Williams has finally been unleashed. The Clemson product has racked up 295 yards through three games, and is showing the league the talent that lead him to being the 7th overall pick of the 2017 draft.
Williams was primarily used as a deep threat before this season, with yearly average depth of targets (aDOT) never dipping below 14.5 yards. This season, the Chargers are making a conscious effort to get him the ball with a more diverse route tree. The athletic receiver’s aDOT this season is 9.3 yards. But even with the shorter aDOT, Williams still sees 96 air yards per game, which ranks him in the top 20 in the NFL (through Week 3).
However, the shorter routes now means Williams is garnering more targets. Having seen at least 9 targets in each game, Williams’ target share of 25% ranks just second on the team behind Keenan Allen. The bump in opportunity and shorter routes has lead to 9.5 yards per target, slightly up from the 9.0 he registered last season.
The Raiders present a very winnable matchup for Williams. Las Vegas has yet to play against nearly as formidable a passing attack as the Chargers possess. Despite that, they’ve allowed the 3rd most receptions per game to opposing receivers. With Herbert’s ability to stretch the field with his arm, and the Raiders looking to avoid being beat over the top, I’m expecting Williams’ to rack up the yards on the intermediate routes.
I have projected Williams projected for another 9 targets tonight, resulting in a yardage total in the mid-80s.
Check out our full game preview of Raiders vs Chargers.
Daniel Carlson (LVR) over 6.5 kicking points (-120)
Line available at time of publishing.
When available, I look at kicking point props for every game, and wind up passing on a bet about 99.8% of the time. However, with this total, I do feel like we’re getting the Raiders kicker on a discounted line.
Carlson’s point total through three games this season is 11, 14 and 9. Last season, he put up at least 7 points in 14 of 16 games. He’s 9 for 9 on field goals this year, including 2 from 50+. And dating back to last season, the Chargers have allowed 14 of the last 19 opposing kickers to reach this mark.
Los Angeles is allowing an average drive of 41.3 yards this season. This means their opponents have had no issue getting into field goal range. With this game projecting very favorably in terms of pace (each team in the top three of plays per game), we should see plenty of scoring opportunity.
It’s not the most widely available prop, but there is definitely value on the current line.
