Sunday night of Week 7 brings us a cross-conference matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers. Both teams came into the season with lofty expectations, but currently sit below .500. It’s not overstating to say this game is a must-win for each team, in order to remain competitive in the playoff picture. Before I give my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our expert picks for game sides and totals.
Every NFL game we analyze for props has a ton of different variables to consider. However, this game specifically is a doozy. Injuries, weather, momentum – this matchup has it all. Helping you to navigate through it all, I’ve been able to isolate one familiar play, in which a lot of the variables skew favorably.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) over 14.5 rush attempts (-114)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
Sometimes with sports betting, it’s best to not overthink things. In this case, I’m not hesitating to revisit a bet we hit just two weeks ago. The Colts second year back continues to make this offense go. The NFL’s-5th leading rusher is averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry this season. On the attempts side, he’s hit this number in 4 of his 6 games, with a near miss last week (mainly due to a massive 83-yard run, and game-script).
It’s apparent that the Colts want to get Taylor his carries. Dating back to last season, Indianapolis is 8-4 in the regular season when the Wisconsin product picks up at least 15 carries. However, we need to separate what the Colts want to do from what we project them to do. And in this case, yet again, there are a few favorable variables that lend to Taylor getting his opportunity.
The injuries
The Colts have suffered their fair share of injuries. Out this week are receivers TY Hilton and Paris Campbell, which should put a damper on the passing game. However, likely to return this week is All Pro guard Quenton Nelson. The big man’s presence should provide a nice boost for an already lethal rushing attack.
The weather
Yet another game with some weather concerns. As of publishing, the forecast for Sunday in San Francisco is calling for rain and high winds. The potentially sloppy conditions should lead to the Colts leaning on the ground game.
The matchup
The 49ers’ rush defense comes in right around league average in most categories, which actually bodes well for this play. They have limited long runs, only allowing 3 rushes for 20+ yards, but do allow the 9th highest 1st down percentage. As long as the Colts can continue to move the chains on the ground, Taylor will continue to see opportunity.
And, while the 49ers are 4.5 point favorites, the Colts should be able to remain competitive into the 4th quarter. In fact, Taylor has received 4th-quarter rushing attempts in 5 of the 6 games this season. Plus, each of the 49ers 5 games have been decided by one score or less.
The projection
Overall, it’s another game where the stars should align for Taylor to accrue his share of carries. I have the Colts back projected at 17 totes for Sunday night.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Indianpolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers
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