The Monday night matchup for Week 5 brings together two AFC foes. The 1-3 Colts travel to Baltimore to take on the 3-1 Ravens. Both teams are looking to ride momentum as we get into the heart of the season. Before I give my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our experts picks for game sides and totals.
These teams rely on their run games to get their offenses moving. Establishing that balance is key for any NFL team in an effort to remain somewhat unpredictable with playcalling. And despite coming in as the underdog, I’m looking at the Colts to ensure they feed their star running back.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) over 12.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Line available at time of publishing.
The second-year back is starting to once again show that he’s one of the NFL’s best runners. Taylor has racked up 274 yards on 58 attempts, for a 4.7 yards per carry. Following up on his rookie campaign in which he averaged 5.0 yards per carry, Taylor ranks 12th in the NFL this season.
In a perfect world, the Colts want to run the ball. The passing offense is still looking to find its footing with new quarterback Carson Wentz. Even without All-Pro guard Quentin Nelson available versus the Ravens, Indianapolis is built to be a run-first team.
Including last year’s playoff game, Taylor has reached 13 carries in 13 of the 16 games in which he’s received 40% of the snaps. And since Week 11 of last season, Taylor is averaging 18 carries per game.
The obvious elephant in the room is tonight’s matchup, the Ravens. Baltimore comes into the game as a 7-point favorite, so of course, there are gamescript concerns. However, the Colts have shown they’ll stay true to the run deep into games with negative gamescripts. Taylor was receiving carries into the 4th quarter during Weeks 1 and 2, despite the Colts being down by 2 scores.
Coming off their first win of the season, on the strength of their running back’s legs, I’m looking for the Colts to feed Taylor the ball. I have the running back projected at around 15 attempts tonight.
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