The bookend to the Thanksgiving trifecta of NFL action features the Buffalo Bills heading down to the bayou to take on the Saints. Yet another game in which both teams are coming off multiple-score losses, meaning both teams will be revved up to right the ship. Before I get to my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
My favorite bet of the night in this one plays on the strength of the Saints’ defense. With the added wrinkle of a three-person timeshare, I see value in a prop related to the Bills run game.
Zack Moss (BUF) under 32.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
As high-powered as the Bills offense can be, they have struggled to figure out the running back position. To begin the year, it was a roughly even timeshare between Moss and Devin Singletary. But in the last 2 games, Matt Breida has been mixed in, and has arguably been the best of the three. This week, when asked if Breida had earned more snaps, Bills coach Sean McDermott did not mince words in confirming that notion.
This season, Moss has averaged 36.8 combined rushing and receiving yards per game. But over the last three games, he’s only managed 56 yards on 15 touches. Last week, he was outsnapped by both Breida and Singletary, both of whom easily outpace Moss’ 3.5 yards per carry.
The sophomore back figures to mix in on short-yardage and potentially goal-line situations. This should make chunk yardage hard to come by.
Beyond a potential lack of playing time, this is a brutal matchup for the Bills running game as a whole. The Saints allow a combined 108 yards to running backs per game, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. Football Outsiders has New Orleans as the number one ranked rush defense in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
All in all, Moss might be the odd man out in this tough matchup. I have the Utah product projected at 24 combined yards.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints
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