We are treated to an absolute doozy of a matchup to cap off our NFL Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. Both teams again expect to reign supreme in the conference, and this game will go a long ways in determining that. Before I give my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our experts picks for game sides and totals.
These two teams are flush with talent, making it a bit tricky to navigate from a player prop standpoint. There is one line, however, that is reading a bit low, especially given the projected nature of this game.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 15.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available at time of publishing.
How do you game-plan against the Chiefs offense? Do you play two deep safeties to keep Tyreek Hill in front of you? Do you double team Travis Kelce? Whatever scheme is drawn up by their opponent, rarely would the focus be stopping Patrick Mahomes on the ground. In fact, the Bills would probably prefer to see the Chiefs quarterback run the ball than sling it around.
Mahomes has hit this line in 3 of4 games this season. And last season, he reached this in 10 of his 15 regular season starts. Over his career, in games decided by two scores or less, Mahomes averages 19.6 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs don’t often call designed runs for their All-Pro quarterback, so he is likely to pick these yards up via the scramble. This season, Mahomes has 95 yards on 12 scrambles (7.9 per attempt), and he is averaging one rush per every 13.3 dropbacks. In what’s projected to be a fast paced, high-scoring affair, I project Mahomes at 3 scrambles.
Last year in the regular season we saw Mahomes carry the ball 10 times for 36 yards against the Bills. While he likely won’t touch double-digits again, I expect Mahomes to escape from the pocket a few times tonight. I have the former MVP projected around 22 rushing yards.
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