Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 10 with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Miami Dolphins. The 6-2 Ravens will look to build on their division lead in a crowded AFC North; the 2-7 Dolphins just hope to stay competitive. Before I give you my play of the game, be sure to check out our expert’s predictions for sides and totals.
My favorite bet of the game features what has become my go-to player prop type of the season. I love the Ravens former MVP to keep the ball in his own hands tonight.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) over 9.5 rushing attempts (-105)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
Another primetime game, another quarterback carries prop. This week the focus is on the NFL’s premier dual-threat quarterback.
Unless you’re new to the NFL, you know about Lamar Jackson’s running ability. Through 8 games this season he is averaging 12.1 carries and 75 rushing yards per game. Over the last 4 weeks, he has reached double-digit carries 3 times. With the Ravens backfield decimated by injuries, they are leaning on their quarterback for more rushing production. Jackson is averaging 7.5 designed rushes over the last 4 games, compared to just 6 per game over the first 4 contests.
Showing off under the lights
The Ravens signal-caller loves to show out in primetime games. Dating back to last season, Jackson averages 12 carries per game in nationally televised matchups–almost 2 full carries more than the rest of his schedule. He eclipsed 10 carries in 5 of those 7 games while registering 9 attempts in the two misses.
Playing in his first NFL game in his native South Florida, Jackson should be even more motivated to keep the ball in his hands in front of friends and family.
The matchup
The Dolphins rush defense has been surprisingly strong this season. Despite consistently permitting their opponents into positive game-scripts, Miami sits at league average–allowing only 111 yards per game on the ground. This speaks more to the potential effectiveness of Ravens running backs Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell. Miami’s strength in the defensive interior should open up more zone read possibilities for Jackson against the slower linebacking core.
Plus, the more effective the Dolphins are at stopping Freeman and Bell the more likely Jackson is forced into passing downs. The Louisville product is already scrambling on 13 percent of his drop-backs this season and increased passing downs will lead to more impromptu rush opportunities as well.
Overall
Usually I’d stay away from a Jackson rushing prop in a game in which the Ravens are favored by more than a touchdown. However, this line is 2 carries too low given Jackson’s usage of late. With all of the above variables in play, I project 12 carries for Jackson.
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