Even after a long day of NFL action, Sunday Night Football always hits the spot. But when the league flexes in a divisional matchup of two teams battling for first place – it’s a thing of beauty. The Chiefs and Broncos will duke it out on Sunday night. In the crowded AFC West, each of these divisional games is a must win. Before I get to my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
For the Chiefs high-powered offense, unders aren’t always en vogue. But with so many ways of attacking, a few players are bound to be under utilized. My favorite bet of the game banks on just that, with Kansas City’s starting running back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) under 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
This play might not seem like the most appealing on the surface. Denver’s rush defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking below average in almost all metrics. However, I still see value in fading the sophomore running back.
Edwards-Helaire missed 5 games this season with a mid-season knee injury. In the 6 games he’s played, he’s stayed under this line 4 of 6 times. While talented, the Chiefs have been reticent in handing over bell-cow duties to the LSU product.
Snap count
Returning from injury last week, Edwards-Helaire only saw the field for 47% of the Chiefs offensive plays, ceding the majority of playing time to Darrel Williams. Even before his injury, Edwards-Helaire’s playing time had been trending down each week from game 1 to game 4.
While I expect Edwards-Helaire’s snap share to increase a bit from last week, Williams still will be heaviliy involved. Plus, after missing Friday’s practice with a reported stomach flu, it’s fair to question whether the running back is 100% healthy, coming into Sunday night.
Touches
When he does see the field, Edwards-Helaire is not guaranteed significant touches. The Chiefs are 4th most pass happy team in the NFL, behind Patrick Mahomes. With both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce having plus matchups against the Broncos secondary, Mahomes is likely to look their way often.
CEH has only seen more than 17 combined touches in one game this season, and has been very limited in the Chiefs passing game. The Broncos have been successful in limiting their opponents’ time of possession (7th best in the NFL), and will look to slow the game down. Opposing running backs are averaging the 8th fewest total touches per game versus Denver (24.1).
Projection
Even in a decent matchup, there’s still value on the under of this combined line for the former first round pick. I have Edwards-Helaire’s total yardage projected in the high 60s come Sunday night.
Be sure to check out our same game parlay for Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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