The Monday night matchup for NFL Week 12 features a pair of teams looking to gain some momentum. The 3-7 Seahawks travel east to face the 4-6 Football Team. Despite their poor records, both squads came into this season with high expectations, and playoff aspirations. Any semblance of hope for achieving that will require a win in primetime. Before I get to my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis.
Both of these offenses have gone through some significant lulls this season. However, with both defenses struggling against the aerial attack, we could see some heightened production in the passing game. For my best bet of the night, I’m looking at one of Seattle’s top targets to put up some big numbers.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
The Seahawks offense has struggled mightily in recent weeks, even with the return of quarterback Russell Wilson from injury. However this is a prime get-right spot for Seattle’s passing game.
The Football team ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and allows the 5th-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers (182.8). Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt against Washington, which is the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.
Despite Seattle’s recent struggles, Lockett is still in the midst of a nice season. The 7th-year pro has 717 yards in 10 games, and has eclipsed this line in 3 of the 7 games which Wilson played in. He leads the team in receiving yards and catches.
Why Lockett over Metcalf?
When looking at Seahawks receivers, it’s fair to question why I’m going with Lockett over Seattle’s other stud pass catcher, DK Metcalf. While Lockett does have more receiving yards with Wilson at the helm, it comes down to the matchup as well.
Metcalf runs the majority of his routes on the left side of the formation. This likely will pit him against Washington’s best cover corner, Kendall Fuller. Lockett, who typically lines up on the right or in the slot, will get a more advantageous matchup against William Jackson.
Plus, Washington ranks last in DVOA against the deep ball. Perhaps surprisingly, it’s Lockett who has emerged as the deep threat in Seattle’s offense. In Wilson’s games, Lockett’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 16.5 yards, compared to Metcalf’s 13.7. Lockett’s 9 catches with at least 20 air yards outpaces the 4 that Metcalf has reeled in. I love Lockett to break a long one on Monday night.
The projection
This game reads as a breakout spot for one of Wilson’s favorite targets. Washington defends the run well (11th in DVOA), so Seattle might be forced to let Russ cook. I have Lockett’s yardage projected in the mid-70s, giving this play value up to over 65.5 yards.
Be sure to check out our same game parlay for Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Football Team.
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