Week 16’s Monday Night Football battle features a pair of 7-7 teams, as the Dolphins visit the Saints. These two squads, rather improbably, are still in the playoff hunt in their respective conferences, placing significant import on this matchup. Before I get to my favorite bet of the game, be sure to check out our full game picks and analysis and our same game parlay.
From a player prop perspective, this game is a bit tricky, as both of these offense have been mercurial throughout the season. However, there is one player on the Dolphins side, who has consistently performed when able.
DeVante Parker (MIA) over 47.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
It seems the entirety of the Dolphins offense have been in and out all season, dealing with various injuries. Parker, the Dolphins’ 7th-year receiver, is no exception, missing half of the team’s games thus far. However, when he does play, he’s been quite effective.
Parker is averaging 65 receiving yards per game in 2021. And in full games with Tua Tagovailoa taking the snaps, the big receiver has accrued at least 60 yards in each of the 4 contests. His average depth of target of 11.8 yards is the furthest of the Dolphins primary pass catchers.
Not only is this a line that Parker has easily achieved this season, but the matchup should be conducive to increased production.
Pass, pass, pass
We’ll start with the obvious — you can’t run the ball on the Saints. New Orleans ranks 1st in Football Outsider’s rush defense DVOA metric, and allow the 2nd-fewest yards per carry (3.8). Add this to the fact that the Dolphins rush offense has been anemic – the lowest yards per carry (3.4) in the NFL, and the 30th ranked rushing offense DVOA.
All of this adds up to is the Dolphins likely needing to throw the ball.
Exploitable matchup
When you think of the Saints secondary, you likely think of now 4-time Pro Bowler, Marshon Lattimore. While he’s a great player, he’s not immune to allowing receiving yards. In fact, Lattimore has allowed the 2nd most receiving yards amongst NFL cornerbacks (809). The Saints’ other outside cornerback, Paulson Adebo, has allowed the 14th most.
What this has amounted to is the Saints allowing the 5th most yards to opposing receivers, at 175 per game. And with New Orleans succeptible to the big play (allowing 13.9 yards per receiver reception – the 9th highest mark), it’s Parker, as opposed to Jaylen Waddle, who should benefit more from deeper throws.
The projection
Given his average production and the matchup, Parker shoud be in line for another strong performance. I have the Louisville product’s receiving yards projected in the low 60s tonight.
Check out our full game analysis of Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints
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