Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We at Pickswise are thankful to have 3 great NFL matchups to look forward to today. We start off with the Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions, with Detroit looking to end a 6-year Thanksgiving Day losing streak. After that, we’ve got an NFC East matchup between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, before we wrap things up with an exciting Thursday Night Football clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. I’ve got my best NFL prop bets for each of those games, and make sure you also read our experts’ NFL picks for EVERY Thanksgiving Day game.
Best Packers vs Lions player prop bet: Sam LaPorta over 45.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I love a great buy-low spot and that’s exactly what this is for Sam LaPorta, who is coming off his quietest game of the season. He has eclipsed this total in 60% of games this season and gets a great matchup in the Green Bay Packers, who put together a lot of great tape last week for what a Tight End can do against this defense. The Packers allowed 2 tight ends for the Chargers to go over this mark and combine for 108 receiving yards. Prior to that, TJ Hockenson hauled in 6 receptions for 88 yards, while LaPorta himself had 4 catches for 56 yards when these teams faced off in Green Bay in Week 4. Even Jonnu Smith had 4 receptions for 47 yards when the Packers played the Falcons. This is arguably my favorite play of the day at this low number and I’m going 1.5U.
Read our full Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions predictions
Best Packers vs Lions anytime touchdown scorer bet: Sam LaPorta to score a TD + Detroit Lions ML (+250)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I love the matchup for Sam LaPorta this weekend and with Jaire Alexander back, it will make it difficult for Amon-Ra St. Brown to find the end zone against this Packers defense. The David Montgomery odds to score a touchdown are putrid, and for good reason. He went off for 3 touchdowns in the first matchup between these teams back in Week 4, and we can expect him to get at least 1 on Sunday. But using that knowledge, I can see LaPorta getting one in the red zone as Green Bay lines up for Montgomery. At +250 with the pick parlayed with the Lions getting the victory, I love the odds we’re getting on this.
Lock in our Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay at +912 odds
Best Commanders vs Cowboys player prop bet: Brian Robinson over 11.5 rushing attempts (+100)
Line available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Antonio Gibson is questionable this Thursday and is a game-time decision with a toe injury. I’m leaning on Robinson to get a majority of the carries on Thanksgiving as it gives Washington the best chance to pull out an upset. The Commanders are 3-2 this season when Robinson crosses this mark and the key will be coming up with a few big stops early for the Commanders defense to keep this close. Dallas is one of the best pass defenses in the league, but we’ve seen 7 RBs hit this mark against them this season. For his career, he’s hit this line in 15 of 20 starts. 1U play for me.
Be sure to check out our full Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
Best Commanders vs Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer bet: Dak Prescott to score a TD (+400)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
If you’re looking for a fun bet in the midday game, look no further than Dak Prescott to record a touchdown. He has an opportunity to insert himself in the MVP conversation with a big performance and adding his 3rd rushing TD of the season in primetime would certainly help. He has 2 rushing TDs under his belt on Thanksgiving for his career.
Lock in our Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Same Game Parlay at +1100 odds
Best 49ers vs Seahawks player prop bet: Deebo Samuel over 10.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
It’s a short week for the 49ers and McCaffrey could use a lightened load in these instances. Combine that with the crazy atmosphere of playing in Seattle and I think we see Deebo get 3-4 carries this Thursday. Samuel averaged a full 3 rush attempts per game on the road this season and 7.17 yards per attempt in those instances, compared to 3.7 y/a at home.For his career, he’s only played one game in Seattle and he went 2 carries for 33 yards. 4 of his 11 career 100 yard receiving games have come against Seattle, but their corner duo is something special.
I’m going to stay on Deebo, but pivot to rushing because I expect him to get creative by getting the ball in his hands another way Thursday and lessening the pressure on Purdy. This is a tactic Shanahan has used for most of Deebo’s career as we can see in his home/road splits: 20 Y/G on the road vs 11.7 at home, 2.9 attempts per game on the road vs 2.1 at home, 6.92 yards per rush on the road vs 5.51 at home. It’s a way to quiet crowd noise and get the ball in the hands of your most dynamic player (behind CMC). This is a 2U play for me.
Be sure to check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks predictions
Best 49ers vs Seahawks anytime touchdown scorer bet: George Kittle to score a TD + San Francisco 49ers ML (+230)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Kittle has 4 touchdowns against Seattle in his last two games in Lumen Field. It’s wildly impressive. When you factor in how good the CB tandem of Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen are on the perimeter, it makes Kittle an easy choice given the odds (we won’t go near CMC at -230). Sprinkle in the fact that Seattle is bottom half in the league against TEs in every major category (yards per game, receptions per game, yards per reception) and you have a good angle to build on. I do think San Francisco wins convincingly even if Geno Smith starts.
Lock in our San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Same Game Parlay at BOOSTED +1025 odds with Unibet
