Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA season is finally about to resume, and even though there are only eight regular season games for each team, oddsmakers are thankfully offering win totals to bet on. As you get ready to place your wagers on the unprecedented bubble season, we’ll be breaking down the best win total bets available.
Lakers under 5.5 wins (-159)
This isn’t a bet against the Lakers per se, but rather the situation they’re in. They’re currently 5.5 games up on the Clippers for the top seed in the West, so it would be very hard for them not to finish with the best record in the conference. Health for the playoffs is by far the most important thing, so I don’t think they’re going to push it too much.
Expect them to take it easy on superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and maybe lose a winnable game or two as a result. Their schedule is also pretty tough, as they’ll see: the Clippers, Raptors, Jazz, Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, Nuggets, and Kings in their eight-game slate. By the time they get to that Kings game, there’s no guarantee LeBron is even playing. Expecting them to go 6-2 given how little the games will likely mean to them is a bit much.
Thunder over 4.5 wins (+160)
Getting +160 here is too good to pass up. The Thunder were absolutely on fire before the shutdown, going 17-5 in their last 22 games. They’re locked in a tight seeding battle, so every game is of massive importance to them. They’ll have a fresh Chris Paul, and their schedule isn’t too difficult with a couple of gimme games against the Suns and Wizards.
Oklahoma City has exactly the kind of strong team culture that would thrive inside the bubble and they were excellent on the road this year, so I don’t worry too much about them losing their home crowd. I like this one a lot.
Bucks under 6.5 wins (-250)
The odds are steep here, but I think it’s worth it. These games mean pretty much nothing to Milwaukee, as they’re already virtually guaranteed the top seed. Like with the Lakers I expect them to prioritize the health of guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo over everything else, and they won’t be going all out to win these games.
In these unusual circumstances with no fans in the stands, effort is going to matter more than anything. I wouldn’t be surprised if Antetokounmpo’s minutes end up being severely limited in regular season action, and the Bucks aren’t much without him on the floor. All they have to do is lose twice for this to cash, and considering they’ve got games against Boston, Houston, Miami, Dallas, and Toronto, I think this is a great bet.
In addition to these win totals, looking for more expert NBA picks throughout the 2020 season? Make sure to check out our NBA picks page for breakdowns and picks for every regular season game.
