Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We are deep into the first round of the NBA playoffs. While coaches adjust to rematches and some teams have the opportunity to approach the doorstep of advancement, it is our job to find betting value on the hardwood while we can. This season I am 53-36 for a +14.0% ROI on the season with player props in this article series.
These are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for the 3-game playoff slate of Thursday, April 26.
Luka Doncic (DAL) Over 9.5 assists (+100)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Dallas Mavericks stole one on the rode in Los Angeles to open the series but they are back home now and a short favorites. Between the Clippers’ inconsistencies on offense and Dallas head coach Jason Kidd’s confusing lineups and adjustments, this is shaping up to be a competitive series and it should be another close affair in Game 3 where the MVP finalist Luka Doncic earns at least 40 minutes. Since the Mavericks re-adjusted their starting lineup following the trade deadline, he has averaged 10.8 assists per 40 minutes — but the Clippers are also a sneaky-solid matchup for Doncic to dish.
The Clippers’ defensive scheme under head coach Ty Lue is already heavily based in blitzing top option guards like Doncic, but in particular over their last 15 games of the regular season they were a below-average defense close to the basket (in the short mid-range area and near the rim) and a bottom-10 defense against catch-and-shoot and above-the-break 3s. During the season, 80.5% of Doncic’s assists came from those areas of the court.
Doncic has failed to hit this line in each of the first 2 games of the series but that just makes this a great buy-low spot. In Game 1 he had 6 assists on 11 potential assists in a game where the Mavericks were simply broken on offense and Doncic took on a heavier scoring rule to try to carry them back into the game. In Game 2 he had 9 assists on 18 potential assists and although that was good enough to lead the Mavericks to victory; that conversion rate was relatively low, as well. With Dallas back at home, Doncic’s teammates should have a better environment to be more efficient in converting off their superstar’s passes. In this spot I project Doncic for 11.0 assists, making this line a steal and playable down to a -125 price.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) Over 16.5 points (-125)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Phoenix Suns look their season in eye on life support as they have opened this series up with 2 blowout losses. Something has to change, as the Minnesota Timberwolves have fed off their deep role-player group and haven’t needed franchise veteran Karl-Anthony Towns to take on a big scoring role. With Towns coming off recent injury, he has only seen 27 and 24 minutes in the first 2 games of this series but he has still had his way scoring the ball against an undersized, lackluster Phoenix defense. Additionally, there was foul trouble involved in both games — so we should expect at least 25 minutes here with an upside for over 30 if the game stays competitive for once.
In a contest where the Timberwolves are now road underdogs, they will likely need their starting unit to put in more work rather than the role players to go up 3-0 in the first round of the playoffs. The Suns have to make some adjustments if they want to see the tide turn but one thing is clear: they don’t have enough matchups available to shut down Towns. Since the acquisition of Royce O’Neale, Phoenix’s isolation defense has gotten a little better — which doesn’t bode well for a guy like Anthony Edwards. However, the Suns are still weak elsewhere. In that span, they are a below-average defense at the rim, in the midrange area, and against above-the-break threes — where Towns can eat.
On the season the skilled Minnesota big man has averaged 16.1 points per 25 minutes alongside Edwards, but in this soft matchup my projection is set at 18.5 points. This prop is playable either at the listed price up up to 17.5 points down to -110.
